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China, India, and the future of the world economy : fierce competition or shared growth?

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  • Dimaranan, Betina
  • Ianchovichina, Elena
  • Martin, William J.

Abstract

Although both China and India are labor-abundant and dependant on manufactures, their export mixes are very different. Only one product-refined petroleum-appears in the top 25 products for both countries, and services exports are roughly twice as important for India as for China, which is much better integrated into global production networks. Even assuming India also begins to integrate into global production chains and expands exports of manufactures, there seems to be opportunity for rapid growth in both countries. Accelerated growth through efficiency improvements in China and India, especially in their high-tech industries, will intensify competition in global markets leading to contraction of the manufacturing sectors in many countries. Improvement in the range and quality of exports from China and India has the potential to create substantial welfare benefits for the world, and for China and India, and to act as a powerful offset to the terms-of-trade losses otherwise associated with rapid export growth. However, without efforts to keep up with China and India, some countries may see further erosion of their export shares and high-tech manufacturing sectors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4304.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4304

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Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Trade Policy; Free Trade; Emerging Markets; Currencies and Exchange Rates;

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References

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  1. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2004. "Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 353-371, April.
  2. Kee, Hiau Looi & Nicita, Alessandro & Olarreaga, Marcelo, 2004. "Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions," CEPR Discussion Papers 4669, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Guillaume GAULIER & Francoise LEMOINE & Deniz �NAL-KESENCI, 2004. "CHINA's INTEGRATION IN ASIAN PRODUCTION NETWORKS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS," Discussion papers 04033., Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  4. Peter K. Schott, 2008. "The relative sophistication of Chinese exports," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 23, pages 5-49, 01.
  5. Ianchovichina, Elena & Kacker, Pooja, 2005. "Growth trends in the developing world : country forecasts and determinants," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3775, The World Bank.
  6. Mitra, Devashish & Ural, Beyza P., 2007. "Indian manufacturing : a slow sector in a rapidly growing economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4233, The World Bank.
  7. Acemoglu, Daron & Ventura, Jaume, 2001. "The World Income Distribution," CEPR Discussion Papers 2973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Ianchovichina, Elena & Martin, William, 2003. "Economic impacts of China's accession to the World Trade Organization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3053, The World Bank.
  9. Sébastien Jean & David Laborde & Will Martin, 2005. "Consequences of Alternative Formulas for Agricultural Tariff Cuts," Working Papers 2005-15, CEPII research center.
  10. Mitsuyo Ando & Fukunari Kimura, 2005. "The Formation of International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia," NBER Chapters, in: International Trade in East Asia, NBER-East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 14, pages 177-216 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Monojit Chatterji & Sushil Mohan & Sayantan Ghosh Dastidar, 2013. "Relationship between trade openness and economic growth of India: A time series analysis," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 274, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  2. Przemyslaw Kowalski, 2008. "China and India: A Tale of Two Trade Integration Approaches," Working Papers id:1637, eSocialSciences.
  3. Adrian Wood & Jörg Mayer, 2011. "Has China de-industrialised other developing countries?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 325-350, June.
  4. Paul Welfens & Jens Perret & Deniz Erdem, 2010. "Global economic sustainability indicator: analysis and policy options for the Copenhagen process," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 153-185, August.
  5. Rod Tyers, 2013. "International Effects of China's Rise and Transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian Perspectives," CAMA Working Papers 2013-44, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  6. Françoise Lemoine & Deniz Ünal-Kesenci, 2008. "Rise of China and India in International Trade: From Textiles to New Technology," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(5), pages 16-34.
  7. Gumilang, Howard & Mukhopadhyay, Kakali & Thomassin, Paul J., 2011. "Economic and environmental impacts of trade liberalization: The case of Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1030-1041, May.
  8. Isabelle Bensidoun & Françoise Lemoine & Deniz Ünal, 2009. "The integration of China and India into the world economy: a comparison," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 6(1), pages 131-155, June.
  9. Ianchovichina, Elena & Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2009. "Implications of the growth of China and India for the other Asian giant : Russia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5075, The World Bank.

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