China, India, and the future of the world economy : fierce competition or shared growth?
AbstractAlthough both China and India are labor-abundant and dependant on manufactures, their export mixes are very different. Only one product-refined petroleum-appears in the top 25 products for both countries, and services exports are roughly twice as important for India as for China, which is much better integrated into global production networks. Even assuming India also begins to integrate into global production chains and expands exports of manufactures, there seems to be opportunity for rapid growth in both countries. Accelerated growth through efficiency improvements in China and India, especially in their high-tech industries, will intensify competition in global markets leading to contraction of the manufacturing sectors in many countries. Improvement in the range and quality of exports from China and India has the potential to create substantial welfare benefits for the world, and for China and India, and to act as a powerful offset to the terms-of-trade losses otherwise associated with rapid export growth. However, without efforts to keep up with China and India, some countries may see further erosion of their export shares and high-tech manufacturing sectors.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4304.
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2007
Date of revision:
Economic Theory&Research; Trade Policy; Free Trade; Emerging Markets; Currencies and Exchange Rates;
Other versions of this item:
- Betina Dimaranan & Elena Ianchovichina & Will Martin, 2009. "How will growth in China and India affect the world economy?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 551-571, October.
- F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
- F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-08-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CNA-2007-08-14 (China)
- NEP-CWA-2007-08-14 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-DEV-2007-08-14 (Development)
- NEP-INT-2007-08-14 (International Trade)
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