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Implications of the growth of China and India for the other Asian giant : Russia

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  • Ianchovichina, Elena
  • Ivanic, Maros
  • Martin, Will

Abstract

Continuing rapid growth of China and India can be expected to raise incomes in Russia, but also to put adjustment pressure on Russian firms. The impacts of the rapid growth of China and India on the Russian economy are explored by examining a baseline projection using a global general equilibrium model, and then assessing the implications of higher-than-expected growth in China and India. The authors find that a major source of benefits to Russia is likely to be terms-of-trade improvements associated with higher energy prices - a quite different channel of effect from that for many developing countries that benefit primarily through expanded opportunities to trade directly with these emerging giants. Taking into account the likely improvements in the quality and variety of exports from China and India, the gains to Russia increase substantially. The expansion of the energy sector and the contraction of manufacturing and services are a sign of a Dutch disease effect that will increase the importance of policies to encourage adaptation to the changing world environment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5075.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5075

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Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Emerging Markets; Markets and Market Access; Trade Policy; Free Trade;

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References

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  1. Mitsuyo Ando & Fukinari Kimura, 2003. "The Formation of International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia," NBER Working Papers 10167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2002. "Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3312, The World Bank.
  3. E. Roy Weintraub & Evelyn L. Forget, 2007. "Introduction," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 39(5), pages 1-6, Supplemen.
  4. Dimaranan, Betina & Ianchovichina, Elena & Martin, William J., 2007. "China, India, and the future of the world economy : fierce competition or shared growth?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4304, The World Bank.
  5. Elena Ianchovichina & Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2009. "Implications Of The Growth Of China And India For The Middle East," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 79-103.
  6. de la Grandville,Olivier, 2009. "Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521725200, October.
  7. Guillaume GAULIER & Francoise LEMOINE & Deniz ´┐ŻNAL-KESENCI, 2004. "CHINA's INTEGRATION IN ASIAN PRODUCTION NETWORKS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS," Discussion papers 04033., Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  8. de la Grandville,Olivier, 2009. "Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521898010, October.
  9. L. Alan Winters & Shahid Yusuf, 2007. "Dancing with the Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6632, October.
  10. Will Martin & Elena Ianchovichina & Betina Dimaranan, 2008. "Economic development in emerging Asian markets: implications for Europe," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 303-330, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Yongzheng Yang, 2011. "Global Rebalancing," IMF Working Papers 11/239, International Monetary Fund.

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