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Growth trends in the developing world : country forecasts and determinants

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  • Ianchovichina, Elena
  • Kacker, Pooja

Abstract

The authors present real per capita GDP growth forecasts for all developing countries for the period 2005-14. For 55 of these countries, representing major world regions and accounting for close to 80 percent of the developing world's GDP, they forecast the growth effects of the main forces underpinning growth, assuming that these evolve following past trends. The authors find that for the average developing country the largest growth dividend comes from continued improvement in public infrastructure, followed by the growth contributions of rising secondary school enrollment, trade openness, and financial deepening. The joint contribution of these four growth determinants to average, annual per capita GDP growth in the next decade is estimated to be 1 percentage point. Failure to keep improving public infrastructure alone could reduce this growth dividend by 50 percent. The forecasted growth contributions differ by country qualitatively and quantitatively.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3775.

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Date of creation: 01 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3775

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Keywords: Achieving Shared Growth; Economic Theory&Research; Governance Indicators; Inequality; Economic Growth;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. L. Alan Winters & Shahid Yusuf, 2007. "Dancing with the Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6632, August.
  2. Betina Dimaranan & Elena Ianchovichina & Will Martin, 2009. "How will growth in China and India affect the world economy?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 551-571, October.
  3. Ianchovichina, Elena & Estache, Antonio & Foucart, Renaud & Garsous, Gregoire & Yepes, Tito, 2012. "Job creation through infrastructure investment in the Middle East and North Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6164, The World Bank.
  4. World Bank, 2007. "Uganda - Moving Beyond Recovery : Investment and Behavior Change, For Growth, Volume 1. Summary and Recommendations," World Bank Other Operational Studies 7576, The World Bank.
  5. World Bank, 2007. "Uganda - Moving Beyond Recovery, Investment and Behavior Change, For Growth, Volume 2, Overview," World Bank Other Operational Studies 7574, The World Bank.

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