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A Quantitative Evaluation of Vietnam's Accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area

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  • Martin, Will

    (The World Bank)

Abstract

This paper analyses the impacts of Vietnam's ASEAN Free Trade Area(AFTA) accession using a multi-region and muti-sector general equilibrium model. The static benefits of AFTA accession are likely to be relatively small. The gains from increased access to ASEAN makets would be small, and the would be offset by the costs of trade diversion. If Vietnam extends its AFTA commitments on a non-discriminatory basis, Vietnam's welfare would increase substantially. These gains are larger in part because the broader liberalization reduce the costly trade diversion and partly the resources are more efficiently allocate among Vietnam's industries. Although some currently protected industries would contract, the expansion of labor intensive manufacturing would bring greater benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin, Will, 2001. "A Quantitative Evaluation of Vietnam's Accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 16, pages 545-567.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0177
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin, Will J. & Warr, Peter G., 1994. "Determinants of agriculture's relative decline: Thailand," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 11(2-3), pages 219-235, December.
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    3. Huff, Karen & Thomas W. Hertel, 2001. "Decomposing Welfare Changes in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 308, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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    5. Corden, W. Max, 1995. "Economic Policy, Exchange Rates, and the International System," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226115917, September.
    6. Mark J. Gehlhar & Thomas W. Hertel & Will Martin, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Changing Structure of Trade and Production in the Pacific Rim," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1101-1110.
    7. Martin,Will & Winters,L. Alan (ed.), 1996. "The Uruguay Round and the Developing Countries," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521586016.
    8. Puga, Diego & Venables, Anthony J, 1999. "Agglomeration and Economic Development: Import Substitution vs. Trade Liberalisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(455), pages 292-311, April.
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    12. Arvind Panagariya, 1994. "East Asia and the New Regionalism in World Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(6), pages 817-839, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Abbott, Philip & Bentzen, Jeanet & Tarp, Finn, 2006. "Vietnam’s Accession to the WTO: Lessons from Past Trade Agreements," MPRA Paper 61679, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Xaignasack Lassachack & Thanouxay Volavong, 2016. "Do cash transfers help the poor during trade liberalization? Evidence from Laos," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 355-371, December.
    3. To, Minh Thu & Lee, Hiro, 2014. "Assessing the impacts of deeper trade reform in Vietnam in a general equilibrium framework," MPRA Paper 82271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Jeong-Soo OH & Phouphet Kyophilavong, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Developing Countries: Literature Survey," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(2), pages 86-94, Fabruary.
    5. Lord, Montague, 2000. "Viet Nam: Small Scale Technical assistance for Capacity Building of Ministry of Finance to Support Tariff, Industry and Subsidy Analysis for the WTO Accession," MPRA Paper 41158, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Dimaranan, Betina & Ianchovichina, Elena & Martin, William J., 2007. "China, India, and the future of the world economy : fierce competition or shared growth?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4304, The World Bank.
    7. Kikuchi, Tomoo & Yanagida, Kensuke & Vo, Huong, 2018. "The effects of Mega-Regional Trade Agreements on Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 4-19.
    8. Houssein Boumellassa & Hugo Valin, 2009. "Vietnam's Accession to the WTO: Expost Evaluation in a Dynamic Perspective," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 118, pages 13-42.
    9. Wilson, John S., 2002. "Liberalizing trade in agriculture : developing countries in Asia and the post-Doha agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2804, The World Bank.
    10. Auffret, Phillipe, 2003. "Trade reform in Vietnam : opportunities with emerging challenges," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3076, The World Bank.
    11. Fukase,Emiko & Martin,William J. & Fukase,Emiko & Martin,William J., 2015. "Economic implications of a potential free trade agreement between India and the United States," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7212, The World Bank.
    12. Nielsen, Chantal Pohl, 2002. "Social accounting matrices for Vietnam 1996 and 1997," TMD discussion papers 86, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Nguyen, Huy Quynh, 2014. "Determinants of Vietnam’s exports: Application of the Gravity Model," MPRA Paper 59363, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Manh Toan Nguyen & Tung Lam Dang & Thi Hong Hanh Huynh, 2020. "Trade Liberalization and Income Distribution in Vietnam: Dynamic CGE Approach," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 404-429, December.
    15. Anh D. Pham & Ha Pham & Kim Cuong Ly, 2019. "Double Taxation Treaties as a Catalyst for Trade Developments: A Comparative Study of Vietnam’s Relations with ASEAN and EU Member States," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ASEAN; Free Trade Area; Vietnam; CGE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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