Vietnam's Accession to the WTO: Expost Evaluation in a Dynamic Perspective
AbstractThis paper aims to reassess the impact of Vietnam's accession to the WTO using a quantitative computable genera equilibrium (CGE) approach. First, a recursive dynamic approach helps to better handle the effects of the commitments in the context of a rapid economic growth. Second, thanks to the ex posf perspective, tariff line commitments are implemented at the 6-digits level of Harmonised System (HS6| using the official final schedule. Last, the WTO option is evaluated in a more realistic context where regional agreements involving Vietnam are represented. We show that WTO commitments signed in late 2006 by Vietnam for trade in merchandise should be positive for this economy, mainly through the benefits of the end of textile quotas from the United States. Welfare gains should represent around 1 percent of gross domestic product by 2015.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.
Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): 118 ()
Computable General Equilibrium Model; trade policy; World Trade Organization; Vietnam;
Other versions of this item:
- Houssein Guimbard & Hugo Valin, 2008. "Vietnam's Accession to the WTO: Ex-Post Evaluation in a Dynamic Perspective," Working Papers 2008-31, CEPII research center.
- D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
- F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
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