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Vietnam's Accession to the WTO: Ex-Post Evaluation in a Dynamic Perspective

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  • Houssein Guimbard
  • Hugo Valin

Abstract

Vietnam’s accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on January 11, 2007 has represented the outcome of decades of efforts to modernise its economy. In this paper, we propose a new general equilibrium assessment of Vietnam’s accession to WTO using a dynamic approach and benefiting from the ex-post perspective offered one year after the membership acceptation. We rely on a dynamic global model incorporating duty-drawbacks and taking into account tariff changes at the HS6 level. A particular attention is paid on the sensitivity to dynamics assumptions and labour market closure. Our results show that gains for Vietnam linked to WTO accession are positive for trade in merchandises, but highly dependent on the evolution of textile and apparel sectors, whose exports were boosted by the commitments.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2008-31.

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Date of creation: Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-31

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Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium Models; Trade policy; World trade organisation; Vietnam;

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  1. Richard E. Baldwin & Rikard Forslid, 2006. "Trade Liberalization with Heterogenous Firms," NBER Working Papers 12192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jean-Pierre Cling & Mohamed Ali Marouani & Mireille Razafindrakoto & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & François Roubaud, 2008. "The Vietnam’s terms of accession and distributional impact of WTO membership," Working Papers DT/2008/03, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
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  6. Decreux, Yvan & Valin, Hugo, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 7284, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  7. Chaponniere, Jean-Raphael & Cling, Jean-Pierre & Zhou, Bin, 2008. "Vietnam Following in China?s Footsteps: The Third Wave of Emerging Asian Economies," Working Paper Series RP2008/84, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  8. Fujii, Tomoki & Roland-Holst, David, 2008. "How does Vietnam's accession to the World Trade Organization change the spatial incidence of poverty?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4521, The World Bank.
  9. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2002. "Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3312, The World Bank.
  10. David Vanzetti & Pham Lan Huong, 2006. "Vietnam's Trade Policy Dilemmas," Trade Working Papers 22036, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  11. Marouani, Mohamed Ali, 2002. "Imperfections du marché du travail et modèles d’équilibre général calculables : une revue de littérature," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4566, Paris Dauphine University.
  12. Jensen, Henning Tarp & Tarp, Finn, 2007. "A Vietnam Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the Year 2003," MPRA Paper 29822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Emiko Fukase & Will Martin, 2000. "The effects of the United States granting MFN status to Vietnam," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 539-559, 09.
  14. Philip Abbott & Jeanet Bentzen & Finn Tarp, 2007. "Vietnam’s Accession to the WTO: Lessons from Past Trade Agreements," Discussion Papers 07-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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