Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The effects of uncertainty about countries' compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ferré Carracedo, Montserrat

Abstract

The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) was established to govern discretionary fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union. This article studies the effects created when there is uncertainty about the members’ commitment to respecting the established deficit limits in the SGP. We will show that, even if countries respect the SGP deficit ceiling, the presence of uncertainty about their compliance will bring about higher volatility in key economic variables, which could, in turn, affect unemployment and growth negatively. This finding shows that it is important to reduce uncertainty about the members’ commitment towards the SGP. Keywords: fiscal policy rules, monetary union, Stability and Growth Pact, uncertainty, commitment. JEL No.: E63, F55, H62, H87

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2072/169686
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2072/169686.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:urv:wpaper:2072/169686

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Avda. de la Universitat,1 - 43204 Reus (Tarragona)
Phone: 977 75 98 00
Fax: 977 75 98 10
Email:
Web page: http://www.urv.cat
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Política fiscal; Unió Monetària Europea; Estabilització econòmica; 339 - Comerç. Relacions econòmiques internacionals. Economia mundial. Màrqueting;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Gábor Orbán & György Szapáry, 2004. "The Stability and Growth Pact from the Perspective Of the New Member States," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-709, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Riccardo Faini, 2006. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 443-489, 07.
  3. Dixit, Avinash & Lambertini, Luisa, 2003. "Symbiosis of monetary and fiscal policies in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 235-247, August.
  4. Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2004. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," European Economy - Economic Papers 210, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  5. Tilman Brück & Rudolf Zwiener, 2004. "Fiscal Policy Rules for Stabilisation and Growth: A Simulation Analysis of Deficit and Expenditure Targets in a Monetary Union," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 427, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Calmfors, Lars, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Coordination in Europe," Seminar Papers 765, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  7. Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & Bovenberg, A.L., 1995. "Monetary Union without Fiscal Coordination May Discipline Policymakers," DELTA Working Papers 95-22, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  8. Robert P. Hagemann, 2010. "Improving Fiscal Performance Through Fiscal Councils," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 829, OECD Publishing.
  9. Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, 06.
  10. Marco Buti & Werner Roeger & Jan In't Veld, 2001. "Stabilizing Output and Inflation: Policy Conflicts and Co-operation under a Stability Pact," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 801-828, December.
  11. Marek Dabrowski & Malgorzata Antczak & Michal Gorzelak, 2006. "Fiscal Challenges Facing the New Member States," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 252-276, June.
  12. Martin Feldstein, 2005. "The Euro and the Stability Pact," NBER Working Papers 11249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
  14. Evans, Paul, 1984. "The Effects on Output of Money Growth and Interest Rate Volatility in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 204-22, April.
  15. Dutkowsky, Donald H, 1987. "Unanticipated Money Growth, Interest Rate Volatility, and Unemployment in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 144-48, February.
  16. H. Badinger, 2009. "Fiscal rules, discretionary fiscal policy and macroeconomic stability: an empirical assessment for OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 829-847.
  17. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2002. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," CEPR Discussion Papers 3277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Helmut Wagner, 2006. "Fiscal Issues in the New EU Member Countries - Prospects and Challenges," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2006/1 edited by Morten Balling.
  19. Elena Flores & Gabriele Giudice & Alessandro Turrini, 2005. "The framework for fiscal policy in EMU: What future after five years of experience?," European Economy - Economic Papers 223, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  20. Martin Larch & Paul van den Noord & Lars Jonung, 2010. "The Stability and Growth Pact: Lessons from the Great Recession," European Economy - Economic Papers 429, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  21. Buti, Marco & Sapir, André, 2006. "Fiscal Policy in Europe: The Past and Future of EMU Rules from the Perspective of Musgrave and Buchanan," CEPR Discussion Papers 5830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Eichengreen, Barry, 2005. "Europe, the euro and the ECB: Monetary success, fiscal failure," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 427-439, June.
  23. Frank Bohn, 2005. "Maastricht Criteria versus Stability Pact," Working Papers 200506, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.
  24. Philip Lane, 2010. "Some Lessons for Fiscal Policy from the Financial Crisis," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp334, IIIS.
  25. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  26. Helmut Wagner, 2006. "Fiscal Issues in the New EU Member Countries - Prospects and Challenges," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  27. Bonatti, Luigi & Cristini, Annalisa, 2008. "Breaking the Stability Pact: Was it predictable?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 793-810.
  28. Montserrat Ferré, 2005. "Should Fiscal Authorities Co-operate in a Monetary Union with Public Deficit Targets?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 539-550, 09.
  29. Harald Badinger, 2008. "Cyclical Fiscal Policy, Output Volatility, and Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 2268, CESifo Group Munich.
  30. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2007. "Debt, deficits, and the accession of the new member States to the Euro," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 316-337, June.
  31. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1998. "The Stability Pact: more than a minor nuisance?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 65-113, 04.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:urv:wpaper:2072/169686. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ariadna Casals).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.