Time Varying Risk Aversion: An Application to Energy Hedging
AbstractRisk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of risk aversion that is based on the observed risk preferences of energy hedging market participants. The resulting estimates are applied to derive explicit risk aversion based optimal hedge strategies for both short and long hedgers. Out-of-sample results are also presented based on a unique approach that allows us to forecast risk aversion, thereby estimating hedge strategies that address the potential future needs of energy hedgers. We find that the risk aversion based hedges differ significantly from simpler OLS hedges. When implemented in-sample, risk aversion hedges for short hedgers outperform the OLS hedge ratio in a utility based comparison.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Geary Institute, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 201007.
Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2010
Date of revision:
Energy; Hedging; Risk Management; Risk Aversion; Forecasting;
Other versions of this item:
- Cotter, John & Hanly, Jim, 2010. "Time-varying risk aversion: An application to energy hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 432-441, March.
- John Cotter & Jim Hanly, 2011. "Time Varying Risk Aversion: An Application to Energy Hedging," Papers 1103.5968, arXiv.org.
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-04-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2010-04-17 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-RMG-2010-04-17 (Risk Management)
- NEP-UPT-2010-04-17 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
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