Downside risk and the energy hedger's horizon
AbstractIn this paper, we explore the impact of investor time-horizon on an optimal downside hedged energy portfolio. Previous studies have shown that minimum-variance hedging effectiveness improves for longer horizons using variance as the performance metric. This paper investigates whether this result holds for different hedging objectives and effectiveness measures. A wavelet transform is applied to calculate the optimal heating oil hedge ratio using a variety of downside objective functions at different time-horizons. We demonstrate decreased hedging effectiveness for increased levels of uncertainty at higher confidence intervals. Moreover, for each of the different hedging objectives and effectiveness measures studied, we also demonstrate increasing hedging effectiveness at longer horizons. While small differences in effectiveness are found across the different hedging objectives, time-horizon effects are found to dominate confirming the importance of considering the hedgers horizon. The findings suggest that while downside risk measures are useful in the computation of an optimal hedge ratio that accounts for unwanted negative returns, hedging horizon and confidence intervals should also be given careful consideration by the energy hedger.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Geary Institute, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 201219.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 17 Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Energy Hedging; Futures Hedging; Wavelet Transform; Hedging Horizon; Downside Risk;
Other versions of this item:
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-09-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2012-09-30 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-RMG-2012-09-30 (Risk Management)
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