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A Structural Evaluation of a Large-Scale Quasi-Experimental Microfinance Initiative

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  • Robert M. Townsend

    (MIT)

  • Joseph P. Kaboski

    (Ohio State University)

Abstract

This paper uses a structural model to understand, predict, and evaluate the impact of an exogenous microcredit intervention program, the Thai Million Baht Village Fund program. We model household decisions in the face of borrowing constraints, income uncertainty, and high-yield indivisible investment opportunities. After estimation of parameters using pre-program data, we evaluate the model's ability to predict and interpret the impact of the village fund intervention. Simulated predictions from the model mirror actual data in reproducing a greater increase in consumption than credit, which is interpreted as evidence of credit contraints. A cost-benefi t analysis using the model indicates that some households value the program much more than its per household cost, but overall the program costs 20 percent more than the sum of these benefi ts.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2009 Meeting Papers with number 717.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed009:717

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Cited by:
  1. Mark Dean & Anja Sautmann, 2014. "Credit Constraints and the Measurement of Time Preferences," Working Papers 2014-1, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  2. Gharad Bryan & Shyamal Chowdhury & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2014. "Under-investment in a Profitable Technology: The Case of Seasonal Migration in Bangladesh," NBER Working Papers 20172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Jia, Xiangping & Xiang, Cheng & Huang, Jikun, 2013. "Microfinance, self-employment, and entrepreneurs in less developed areas of rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 94-103.
  4. Aggarwal, Shilpa & Klapper, Leora & Singer, Dorothe, 2012. "Financing businesses in Africa : the role of microfinance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5975, The World Bank.
  5. Augsburg, B. & Haas, R. de & Harmgart, H. & Meghir, C., 2013. "Microfinance and Poverty Alleviation," Discussion Paper 2013-075, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Attanasio, Orazio & Augsburg, Britta & de Haas, Ralph & Fitzsimons, Emla & Harmgart, Heike, 2014. "Group lending or individual lending? Evidence from a randomised field experiment in Mongolia," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2014-303, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  7. Jonathan Gruber & Nathaniel Hendren & Robert Townsend, 2012. "Demand and Reimbursement Effects of Healthcare Reform: Health Care Utilization and Infant Mortality in Thailand," NBER Working Papers 17739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Bandiera, Oriana & Burgess, Robin & Das, Narayan & Gulesci, Selim & Rasul, Imran & Sulaiman, Munshi, 2013. "Can Basic Entrepreneurship Transform the Economic Lives of the Poor?," IZA Discussion Papers 7386, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Fulford, Scott L., 2013. "The effects of financial development in the short and long run: Theory and evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 56-72.
  10. Ruiz, Claudia, 2013. "From pawn shops to banks : the impact of formal credit on informal households," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6634, The World Bank.
  11. Boonperm, Jirawan & Haughton, Jonathan & Khandker, Shahidur R. & Rukumnuaykit, Pungpond, 2012. "Appraising the Thailand village fund," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5998, The World Bank.
  12. Deininger, Klaus & Liu, Yanyan, 2013. "Economic and Social Impacts of an Innovative Self-Help Group Model in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 149-163.
  13. Michael Christian Lehman, 2014. "Long-Run Effects Of Conditional Cash Transfers," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 223, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  14. Cunha, Jesse & De Giorgi, Giacomo & Jayachandran, Seema, 2011. "The Price Effects of Cash Versus In-Kind Transfers," CEPR Discussion Papers 8581, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Britta Augsburg & Ralph De Haas & Heike Harmgart & Costas Meghir, 2012. "The Impacts of Microcredit: Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina," NBER Working Papers 18538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Esther Duflo & Abhijit Banerjee & Rachel Glennerster & Cynthia G. Kinnan, 2013. "The Miracle of Microfinance? Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 18950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Poschke, Markus, 2013. "The Decision to Become an Entrepreneur and the Firm Size Distribution: A Unifying Framework for Policy Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 7757, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  18. Jonathan Argent & Britta Augsburg & Imran Rasul, 2013. "Livestock asset transfers with and without training: evidence from Rwanda," IFS Working Papers W13/23, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  19. Scott Fulford, 2012. "The precaution of the rich and poor," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 814, Boston College Department of Economics.
  20. Daniel Mueller, 2013. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Inflation and Microfinance in Developing Countries," Working papers 2013/06, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.

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