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Evaluation of financial liberalization : a general equilibrium model with constrained occupation choice

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Author Info
Gine, Xavier
Townsend, Robert M.

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Abstract

The objective of this paper is to assess both the aggregate growth effects and the distributional consequences of financial liberalization as observed in Thailand from 1976 to 1996. A general equilibrium occupational choice model with two sectors, one without intermediation, and the other with borrowing and lending, is taken to Thai data. Key parameters of the production technology and the distribution of entrepreneurial talent are estimated by maximizing the likelihood of transition into business given initial wealth as observed in two distinct datasets. Other parameters of the model are calibrated to try to match the two decades of growth as well as observed changes in inequality, labor share, savings, and the number of entrepreneurs. Without an expansion in the size of the intermediated sector, Thailand would have evolved very differently, namely, with a drastically lower growth rate, high residual subsistence sector, non-increasing wages, but lower inequality. The financial liberalization brings welfare gains and losses to different subsets of the population. Primary winners are talented would-be entrepreneurs who lack credit and cannot otherwise go into business (or invest little capital). Mean gains for these winners range from 17 to 34 percent of observed overall average household income. But liberalization also induces greater demand by entrepreneurs for workers resulting in increases in the wage and lower profits of relatively rich entrepreneurs of the same order of magnitude as the observed overall average income of firm owners. Foreign capital has no significant impact on growth or the distribution of observed income.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3014.

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Date of creation: 30 Apr 2003
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3014

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Keywords: Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Environmental Economics&Policies; Economic Conditions and Volatility; Economic Theory&Research; Banks&Banking Reform; Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Banks&Banking Reform; Economic Conditions and Volatility; International Terrorism&Counterterrorism;

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  3. Ravallion, Martin, 2001. "Growth, Inequality and Poverty: Looking Beyond Averages," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1803-1815, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ravallion, Martin, 2003. "The debate on globalization, poverty, and inequality : why measurement matters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3038, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Rui Albuquerque & Hugo A. Hopenhayn, 2004. "Optimal Lending Contracts and Firm Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 285-315, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Hyeok Jeong, . "Education and Credit: Sources of Growth with Increasing Inequality in Thailand," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 98-12, Chicago - Population Research Center.
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  12. Evans, David S & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1989. "An Estimated Model of Entrepreneurial Choice under Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 808-27, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. James J. Heckman & Lance Lochner & Christopher Taber, 1998. "Explaining Rising Wage Inequality: Explorations with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of Labor Earnings with Heterogeneous Agents," NBER Working Papers 6384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Piketty, Thomas, 1997. "The Dynamics of the Wealth Distribution and the Interest Rate with Credit Rationing," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 64(2), pages 173-89, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Robert M. Townsend & Kenichi Ueda, 2007. "Welfare Gains from Financial Liberalization," IMF Working Papers 07/154, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Zhorin, Victor & Stef-Praun, Tiberiu, 2008. "Grid-enabled estimation of structural economic models," MPRA Paper 11384, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Anna L. Paulson & Robert Townsend, 2003. "Distinguishing limited commitment from moral hazard in models of growth with inequality," Working Paper Series WP-03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  4. Francesco Caselli & Nicola Gennaioli, 2006. "Dynastic Management," CEP Discussion Papers dp0741, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  5. François Bourguignon & Amedeo Spadaro, 2006. "Microsimulation as a Tool for Evaluating Redistribution Policies," Working Papers 20, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph Kaboski & Yongseok Shin, 2009. "Finance and Development: A Tale of Two Sectors," NBER Working Papers 14914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2009. "Finance and inequality : theory and evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4967, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Hyeok Jeong & Robert M. Townsend, 2003. "Growth and Inequality: Model Evaluation Based on an Estimation-Calibration Strategy," IEPR Working Papers 05.10, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Eric Bond & James R. Tybout & Hâle Utar, 2008. "Credit Rationing, Risk Aversion and Industrial Evolution in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 14116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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