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Equilibrium Policy Experiments and the Evaluation of Social Programs

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Author Info
Jeremy Lise () (Economics Department, Queen's Universy)
Shannon Seitz () (Economics Department, Queen's University)
Jeffrey Smith () (University of Maryland)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper makes three contributions to the literature on program evaluation. First, we construct a model that is well-suited to conduct equilibrium policy experiments and we illustrate effectiveness of general equilibrium models as tools for the evaluation of social programs. Second, we demonstrate the usefulness of social experiments as tools to evaluate models. In this respect, our paper serves as the equilibrium analogue to LaLonde (1986) and others, where experiments are used as a benchmark against which to assess the performance of non-experimental estimators. Third, we apply our model to the study of the Canadian Self-Sufficiency Project (SSP), an experiment providing generous financial incentives to exit welfare and obtain stable employment. The model incorporates the main features of many unemployment insurance and welfare programs, including eligibility criteria and time-limited benefits, as well as the wage determination process. We first calibrate our model to data on the control group and simulate the experiment within the model. The model matches the welfare-to-work transition of the treatment group, providing support for our model in this context. We then undertake an equilibrium evaluation of the SSP. Our results highlight important feedback effects of the policy change, including displacement of unemployed individuals, lower wages for workers receiving supplement payments and higher wages for those not directly treated by the program. The results also highlight the incentives of individuals to delay exit from welfare in order to qualify for the program. Together, the feedback effects change the cost-benefit conclusions implied by the partial equilibrium experimental evaluation substantially.

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File URL: http://www.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1012.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1012.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1012

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Related research
Keywords: Program Evaluation Self-Suficiency Project Welfare Social Experiments Equilibrium Models

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Bent Jesper Christensen & Rasmus Lentz & Dale T. Mortensen & George R. Neumann & Axel Werwatz, 2005. "On-the-Job Search and the Wage Distribution," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 23(1), pages 31-58, January. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Pissarides, C A, 1984. "Efficient Job Rejection," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(376a), pages 97-108, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lin, Zhengxi, 1998. "Employment Insurance in Canada: Recent Trends and Policy Changes," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 1998125e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jeremy Lise & Shannon Seitz & Jeffrey Smith, 2005. "Evaluating Search and Matching Models Using Experimental Data," IZA Discussion Papers 1717, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Connolly, Helen & Gottschalk, Peter, 2004. "Do Earnings Subsidies Affect Job Choice?," IZA Discussion Papers 1322, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  6. LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-20, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jeffrey Smith & Petra Todd, 2003. "Does Matching Overcome Lalonde's Critique of Nonexperimental Estimators?," University of Western Ontario, CIBC Human Capital and Productivity Project Working Papers 20035, University of Western Ontario, CIBC Human Capital and Productivity Project. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. W. Erwin Diewert, 1988. "On Tax Reform," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-40, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Browning, Edgar K, 1987. "On the Marginal Welfare Cost of Taxation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 11-23, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Heckman, James J & Lochner, Lance & Taber, Christopher, 1998. "General-Equilibrium Treatment Effects: A Study of Tuition Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 381-86, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Mortensen, Dale T, 1982. "Property Rights and Efficiency in Mating, Racing, and Related Games," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 968-79, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Wage Determination and Efficiency in Search Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2), pages 217-27, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Card, D. & Michalopoulos, C. & Robins, P.K., 2001. "Measuring Wage Growth Among Former Welfare Recipients," Papers 2001-5, Gouvernement du Canada - Human Resources Development.
  14. Bruno, VAN DER LINDEN, 2005. "Equilibrium Evaluation of Active Labor Market Programmes Enhancing Matching Effectiveness," Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques Working Paper 2005007, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heckman, James J, 1996. "The Empirical Foundations of Calibration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 87-104, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 24, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Garry F. Barrett & Michael I. Cragg, 1998. "An Untold Story: The Characteristics of Welfare Use in British Columbia," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 165-188, February.
  18. Davidson, Carl & Woodbury, Stephen A, 1993. "The Displacement Effect of Reemployment Bonus Programs," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(4), pages 575-605, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Albrecht, James & van den Berg, Gerard J. & Vroman, Susan, 2005. "The Knowledge Lift: The Swedish Adult Education Program That Aimed to Eliminate Low Worker Skill Levels," IZA Discussion Papers 1503, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey A. Smith, 1998. "Evaluating the Welfare State," NBER Working Papers 6542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Albrecht, James & van den Berg, Gerard J & Vroman, Susan, 2007. "The aggregate labor market effects of the Swedish knowledge lift program," Working Paper Series 2008:1, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Petra Todd & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2002. "Using a Social Experiment to Validate a Dynamic Behavioral Model of Child Schooling and Fertility: Assessing the Impact of a School Subsidy Program in Mexico," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-022, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Sep 2003. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, . "Empirical Applications of Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Christopher Ferrall, 2008. "Explaining and Forecasting Results of The Self-Sufficiency Project," Working Papers 1165, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jeremy Lise & Shannon Seitz & Jeffrey Smith, 2006. "Evaluating Search and Matching Models Using Experimental Data," Working Papers 1074, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Van der Linden, Bruno, 2005. "Equilibrium Evaluation of Active Labor Market Programmes Enhancing Matching Effectiveness," IZA Discussion Papers 1526, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Gautier, Pieter A & Moraga-González, José-Luis & Wolthoff, Ronald, 2007. "Structural Estimation of Search Intensity: Do Non-Employed Workers Search Enough?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6440, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Petra E. Todd & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2006. "Ex Ante Evaluation of Social Programs," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-022, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jeffrey R. Kling, 2007. "Methodological Frontiers of Public Finance Field Experiments," NBER Working Papers 12931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Albrecht, James & van den Berg, Gerard J & Vroman, Susan, 2004. "The knowledge lift: The Swedish adult education program that aimed to eliminate low worker skill levels," Working Paper Series 2004:17, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Miana Plesca & Jeffrey Smith, 2007. "Evaluating multi-treatment programs: theory and evidence from the U.S. Job Training Partnership Act experiment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 491-528, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Marianne P. Bitler & Jonah B. Gelbach & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2005. "Distributional Impacts of the Self-Sufficiency Project," NBER Working Papers 11626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Cahuc, Pierre & Le Barbanchon, Thomas, 2008. "Labor Market Policy Evaluation in Equilibrium: Some Lessons of the Job Search and Matching Model," IZA Discussion Papers 3687, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  14. Manuela Angelucci & Giacomo De Giorgi, 2006. "Indirect Effects of an Aid Program: The Case of Progresa and Consumption," IZA Discussion Papers 1955, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  15. Kolm, Ann-Sofie & Tonin, Mirco, 2006. "In-Work Benefits in Search Equilibrium," Research Papers in Economics 2006:12, Stockholm University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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