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The effects of financial development in the short and long run

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  • Scott Fulford

    ()
    (Boston College)

Abstract

Although many view financial access as a means of reducing poverty or increasing growth, empirical studies have produced contradictory results. One problem is that most studies cover only a short time frame and do not consider dynamic effects. I show that introducing credit creates a boom in consumption and reduces poverty initially, but eventually reduces mean con- sumption because credit substitutes for precautionary wealth. Using new consistent consump- tion data, my empirical findings show that increased access to bank branches in rural India increased consumption initially and reduced poverty, but consumption later fell and poverty rose.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 741.

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Date of creation: 15 Jun 2010
Date of revision: 31 May 2011
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:741

Note: Previously circulated as "Financial access, precaution, and development: Theory and evidence from India"
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Keywords: financial access; precaution; development; India;

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  1. Kazianga, Harounan & Udry, Christopher, 2006. "Consumption smoothing? Livestock, insurance and drought in rural Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 413-446, April.
  2. Christopher D. Carroll, 1996. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 5788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Burgess, Robin & Pande, Rohini, 2004. "Do Rural Banks Matter? Evidence from the Indian Social Banking Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 4211, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2010. "Expanding Credit Access: Using Randomized Supply Decisions to Estimate the Impacts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 433-464, January.
  5. Townsend, R.M., 1991. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center, Chicago - Economics Research Center 91-3, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
  6. Gine, Xavier & Townsend, Robert M., 2003. "Evaluation of financial liberalization : a general equilibrium model with constrained occupation choice," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3014, The World Bank.
  7. Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B., 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, And The Distribution Of Income," University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations Working Papers 9002, University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations.
  8. David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001. "Do Liquidity Constraints and Interest Rates Matter for Consumer Behavior? Evidence from Credit Card Data," NBER Working Papers 8314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Gertler, Paul & Levine, David I. & Moretti, Enrico, 2003. "Do Microfinance Programs Help Families Insure Consumption Against Illness?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkele qt5811j217, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  10. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Andrew F. Newman, 1990. "Occupational Choice and the Process of Development," Discussion Papers, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science 911, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  11. Robert M. Townsend & Kenichi Ueda, 2006. "Financial Deepening, Inequality, and Growth: A Model-Based Quantitative Evaluation -super-1," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 251-293.
  12. Galor, Oded & Zeira, Joseph, 1993. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 35-52, January.
  13. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Parker, Jonathan A, 2000. "Consumption Over the Life-Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2345, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934 Elsevier.
  15. Christopher D. Carroll, 1992. "The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 61-156.
  16. Bencivenga, Valerie R & Smith, Bruce D, 1991. "Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 195-209, April.
  17. Beatriz Armendariz & Jonathan Morduch, 2007. "The Economics of Microfinance," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262512017, December.
  18. Joseph P. Kaboski & Robert M. Townsend, 2012. "The Impact of Credit on Village Economies," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 98-133, April.
  19. Shahidur R. Khandker, 2005. "Microfinance and Poverty: Evidence Using Panel Data from Bangladesh," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 19(2), pages 263-286.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Scott Fulford, 2012. "Returns to education in India," Boston College Working Papers in Economics, Boston College Department of Economics 819, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Banerjee, Abhijit & Duflo, Esther & Glennerster, Rachel & Kinnan, Cynthia, 2013. "The miracle of microfinance? Evidence from a randomized evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 9437, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Joseph P. Kaboski & Robert M. Townsend, 2012. "The Impact of Credit on Village Economies," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 98-133, April.
  4. Scott Fulford, 2010. "If financial development matters, then how? National banks in the United States 1870-1900," Boston College Working Papers in Economics, Boston College Department of Economics 753, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 15 May 2012.
  5. Fulford, Scott L., 2013. "The effects of financial development in the short and long run: Theory and evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 56-72.

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