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Equilibrium Policy Experiments and the Evaluation of Social Programs

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Author Info
Jeremy Lise () (Queen's University)
Shannon Seitz () (Queen's University)
Jeffrey Smith () (University of Michigan)

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Abstract

In this paper we provide new and convincing evidence on the presence and magnitude of feedback effects associated with 'make work pay' policies currently under consideration in the US, Canada, the UK and other developed countries. We build a general equilibrium model of the labor market and use the model to study the effects of policies currently implemented in practice only as small-scale social experiments. The evidence from our model experiments is particularly compelling as we first test the partial equilibrium implications of our model using experimental data: in particular, we calibrate the model to the control group in a randomized experiment and find the model predicts the program group outcomes and the experimental impact estimates very well. We then use the model to quantify the effects of the experimental program introduced in general equilibrium. We apply our methodology to the evaluation of the Canadian Self-Sufficiency Project (SSP), a policy providing generous financial incentives for Income Assistance (IA) recipients to obtain stable employment. Our results reveal several important feedback effects associated with the SSP policy; taken together, these feedback effects reverse the cost-benefit conclusions implied by the partial equilibrium experimental evaluation. The substantial general equilibrium effects reported here are illustrative of the feedback effects that are likely to arise in a broad range of other programs that seek to 'make work pay' through the subsidization of search and work.

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File URL: http://www.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1076.pdf
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Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1076.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1076

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Related research
Keywords: Program evaluation policy experiments Self-Sufficiency Project welfare social experiments equilibrium search models

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bent Jesper Christensen & Rasmus Lentz & Dale T. Mortensen & George R. Neumann & Axel Werwatz, 2005. "On-the-Job Search and the Wage Distribution," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 23(1), pages 31-58, January. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Pissarides, C A, 1984. "Efficient Job Rejection," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(376a), pages 97-108, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lin, Zhengxi, 1998. "Employment Insurance in Canada: Recent Trends and Policy Changes," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 1998125e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jeremy Lise & Shannon Seitz & Jeffrey Smith, 2005. "Evaluating Search and Matching Models Using Experimental Data," IZA Discussion Papers 1717, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Connolly, Helen & Gottschalk, Peter, 2004. "Do Earnings Subsidies Affect Job Choice?," IZA Discussion Papers 1322, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  6. LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-20, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jeffrey Smith & Petra Todd, 2003. "Does Matching Overcome Lalonde's Critique of Nonexperimental Estimators?," University of Western Ontario, CIBC Human Capital and Productivity Project Working Papers 20035, University of Western Ontario, CIBC Human Capital and Productivity Project. [Downloadable!]
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  8. W. Erwin Diewert, 1988. "On Tax Reform," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-40, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Browning, Edgar K, 1987. "On the Marginal Welfare Cost of Taxation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 11-23, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Heckman, James J & Lochner, Lance & Taber, Christopher, 1998. "General-Equilibrium Treatment Effects: A Study of Tuition Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 381-86, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Mortensen, Dale T, 1982. "Property Rights and Efficiency in Mating, Racing, and Related Games," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 968-79, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Wage Determination and Efficiency in Search Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2), pages 217-27, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Card, D. & Michalopoulos, C. & Robins, P.K., 2001. "Measuring Wage Growth Among Former Welfare Recipients," Papers 2001-5, Gouvernement du Canada - Human Resources Development.
  14. Bruno, VAN DER LINDEN, 2005. "Equilibrium Evaluation of Active Labor Market Programmes Enhancing Matching Effectiveness," Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques Working Paper 2005007, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heckman, James J, 1996. "The Empirical Foundations of Calibration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 87-104, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 24, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Garry F. Barrett & Michael I. Cragg, 1998. "An Untold Story: The Characteristics of Welfare Use in British Columbia," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 165-188, February.
  18. Davidson, Carl & Woodbury, Stephen A, 1993. "The Displacement Effect of Reemployment Bonus Programs," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(4), pages 575-605, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Albrecht, James & van den Berg, Gerard J. & Vroman, Susan, 2005. "The Knowledge Lift: The Swedish Adult Education Program That Aimed to Eliminate Low Worker Skill Levels," IZA Discussion Papers 1503, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey A. Smith, 1998. "Evaluating the Welfare State," NBER Working Papers 6542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Petra Todd & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2002. "Using a Social Experiment to Validate a Dynamic Behavioral Model of Child Schooling and Fertility: Assessing the Impact of a School Subsidy Program in Mexico," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-022, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Sep 2003. [Downloadable!]
  2. James Albrecht & Gerard J. van den Berg & Susan Vroman, 2006. "The Aggregate Labor Market Effects of the Swedish Knowledge Lift Program," IZA Discussion Papers 2385, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jeremy Lise & Shannon Seitz & Jeffrey Smith, 2006. "Evaluating Search and Matching Models Using Experimental Data," Working Papers 1074, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Gautier, Pieter A & Moraga-González, José-Luis & Wolthoff, Ronald, 2007. "Structural Estimation of Search Intensity: Do Non-Employed Workers Search Enough?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6440, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Petra E. Todd & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2006. "Ex Ante Evaluation of Social Programs," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-022, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jeffrey R. Kling, 2007. "Methodological Frontiers of Public Finance Field Experiments," NBER Working Papers 12931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Marianne P. Bitler & Jonah B. Gelbach & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2005. "Distributional Impacts of the Self-Sufficiency Project," NBER Working Papers 11626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Manuela Angelucci & Giacomo De Giorgi, 2006. "Indirect Effects of an Aid Program: The Case of Progresa and Consumption," IZA Discussion Papers 1955, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  9. Kolm, Ann-Sofie & Tonin, Mirco, 2006. "In-Work Benefits in Search Equilibrium," Research Papers in Economics 2006:12, Stockholm University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Van der Linden, Bruno, 2005. "Equilibrium Evaluation of Active Labor Market Programmes Enhancing Matching Effectiveness," IZA Discussion Papers 1526, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Albrecht, James & van den Berg, Gerard J & Vroman, Susan, 2004. "The knowledge lift: The Swedish adult education program that aimed to eliminate low worker skill levels," Working Paper Series 2004:17, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Miana Plesca & Jeffrey Smith, 2007. "Evaluating multi-treatment programs: theory and evidence from the U.S. Job Training Partnership Act experiment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 491-528, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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