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Acnowledging for spatial effects in the Portuguese housing markets

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Author Info
G. Carvalho, Pedro
Ribeiro, Alexandra
Abstract

The aim of this paper is to revisit a former paper on the Portuguese housing market (1995), acknowledging for spatial effects in order to interpret housing market changes over 1995-2001. The paper will include a first section devoted to explain the differences between the OLS regression analysis and spatial econometrics, explaining the theoretical background used to develop a spatial lag model with the same database; the second section will show the misspecification problems we found when we ran the same model for after 1995-1998 databases; the third section is devoted to describe new housing literature findings relating housing market evolution with the macroeconomic cycles in Portugal; as a consequence the fourth section will include the method we developed with recent census data, to explain the evolution of the country macroeconomic cycles and the agents’ new behavioural attitudes concerning housing; finally and using spatial analysis we can understand the main changes occurred over the 1995-2001 period. The evaluation of the results contradicts some mainstream scholar and political knowledge to explain spatial inequalities between coast and interior municipalities. Complexity issues seem to be present when we consider the way different market agents make decisions on housing markets, looking this good either as a place to live or an alternative investment asset. In the concluding remarks we raise some new interesting questions for further research.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6132.

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Date of creation: 31 Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6132

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
R21 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
R11 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Analysis of Growth, Development, and Changes
D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles

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  1. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Lastrapes, William D., 2002. "The Real Price of Housing and Money Supply Shocks: Time Series Evidence and Theoretical Simulations," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 40-74, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Goodman, Allen C., 2005. "Central cities and housing supply: Growth and decline in US cities," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 315-335, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Donald Bruce & Douglas Holtz-Eakin, 1997. "Apocalypse Now? Fundamental Tax Reform and Residential Housing Values," NBER Working Papers 6282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Nordvik, Viggo, 2006. "Selective housing policy in local housing markets and the supply of housing," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 279-292, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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