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How Persistent is Indian Inflationary Process, Has it Changed?

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  • Khundrakpam, Jeevan K.

Abstract

Using monthly data for the period 1982:4 to 2008:3, the study analyses the inflation persistence in India in terms of autoregressive properties and lag response of inflation to systematic monetary policy. It finds inflation persistence to be on the lower side,particularly when allowed for the break in the mean of inflation observed around the second half of the 1990s. In general, with the decline in mean rate of inflation, persistence in most of the inflation measures also declined. The impact of money supply on various measures of inflation is mostly positive and had its maximum impact with a much longer lag during the higher inflationary period before the mid-1990s than during the succeeding lower inflationary environment. Interest rate have a negative impact on all the inflation series and, in general, had its maximum impact on inflation with a much longer lag than that of change in money supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Khundrakpam, Jeevan K., 2008. "How Persistent is Indian Inflationary Process, Has it Changed?," MPRA Paper 50927, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50927
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik & Javed Iqbal, 2016. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 12, pages 19-42.
    2. Ravindra H. Dholakia & Kadiyala Sri Virinchi, 2017. "How Costly is the Deliberate Disinflation in India? Estimating the Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(1), pages 27-44, March.
    3. Dholakia, Ravindra H. & Kadiyala Sri Virinchi, 2015. "How Costly is the Deliberate Disinflation in India? Estimating the Sacrifice Ratio," IIMA Working Papers WP2015-08-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    4. Muhammad Farooq Arby & Amjad Ali, 2017. "Threshold Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 1-19.
    5. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Javed Iqbal & Imran Naveed Khan, 2017. "Global Commodity Prices and Domestic Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 21-51.
    6. Tianfeng Li & June Wei, 2015. "Multiple Structural Breaks and Inflation Persistence: Evidence from China," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Rakesh Mohan & Partha Ray, 2019. "Indian Monetary Policy in the Time of Inflation Targeting and Demonetization," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 14(1), pages 67-92, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Rate; Inflation Persistence;

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J52 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Dispute Resolution: Strikes, Arbitration, and Mediation

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