Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country
AbstractThis study estimates degree of intrinsic inflation persistence in Pakistan using aggregate price index, group level price indices, and individual commodity prices. We find no evidence of a unit root in (MoM) inflation at any level, except for house rent. Using monthly data from 1959 to 2011 we find that the estimate of (overall) inflation persistence is 0.16, which is low but significant. During 2001-2011 (overall) inflation persistence is insignificant. Food inflation does not exhibit any persistence during the last decade. However, the degree of persistence is very high (0.80) and significant for core inflation (NFNE), which weakens slightly (to 0.69) when we account for commodities price shock of 2008. At micro level, the estimated degree of inflation persistence for various groups is found to be relatively higher, in almost 60 percent of the cases, compared to corresponding degree of persistence at aggregate level. This may be because in micro analysis we consider only those commodities for which the estimated degree of inflation persistence is significant.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 43152.
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2012
Date of revision:
Persistence; Inflation; Food Inflation; Core Inflation;
Other versions of this item:
- Hanif, M. Nadim & Malik, Muhammad Jahanzeb & Iqbal, Javed, 2012. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country," MPRA Paper 39583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik & Javed Iqbal, 2012. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country," Working Papers id:5040, eSocialSciences.
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-01-07 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000.
"Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis,"
NBER Working Papers
7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
- Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995.
"Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Bilke, L., 2005. "Break in the Mean and Persistence of Inflation: a Sectoral Analysis of French CPI," Working papers 122, Banque de France.
- Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002.
"Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
- Tom Doan, . "LEVINLIN: RATS procedure to perform Levin-Lin-Chu test for unit roots in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00242, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Khundrakpam, Jeevan K., 2008. "How Persistent is Indian Inflationary Process, Has it Changed?," MPRA Paper 50927, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Batini, Nicoletta, 2002.
"Euro area inflation persistence,"
Working Paper Series
0201, European Central Bank.
- Choudhary, M. Ali & Naeem, Saima & Faheem, Abdul & Hanif, Nadim & Pasha, Farooq, 2011. "Formal sector price discoveries: preliminary results from a developing country," MPRA Paper 32368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bilke, Laurent, 2005. "Break in the mean and persistence of inflation: a sectoral analysis of French CPI," Working Paper Series 0463, European Central Bank.
- Souvik Gupta & Magnus Saxegaard, 2009. "Measures of Underlying Inflation in Sri Lanka," IMF Working Papers 09/167, International Monetary Fund.
- Hanif, Muhammad Nadim, 2012. "A Note on Food Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 45009, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Mar 2013.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.