Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country
AbstractThis study estimates degree of intrinsic inflation persistence in Pakistan using aggregate price index, group level price indices, and individual commodity prices. We find no evidence of a unit root in (MoM) inflation at any level, except for house rent. Using monthly data from 1959 to 2011 we find that the estimate of (overall) inflation persistence is 0.16, which is low but significant. During 2001-2011 (overall) inflation persistence is insignificant. Food inflation does not exhibit any persistence during the last decade. However, the degree of persistence is very high (0.80) and significant for core inflation (NFNE), which weakens slightly (to 0.69) when we account for commodities price shock of 2008. At micro level, the estimated degree of inflation persistence for various groups is found to be relatively higher, in almost 60 percent of the cases, compared to corresponding degree of persistence at aggregate level. This may be because in micro analysis we consider only those commodities for which the estimated degree of inflation persistence is significant.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 43152.
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2012
Date of revision:
Persistence; Inflation; Food Inflation; Core Inflation;
Other versions of this item:
- Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik & Javed Iqbal, 2012. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country," Working Papers id:5040, eSocialSciences.
- Hanif, M. Nadim & Malik, Muhammad Jahanzeb & Iqbal, Javed, 2012. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country," MPRA Paper 39583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-01-07 (All new papers)
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