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How Streetcars Shaped Suburbanization: A Granger-Causality Analysis of Land Use and Transit in The Twin Cities

Author

Listed:
  • Feng Xie
  • David Levinson

    (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)

Abstract

This paper presents a causality analysis of the coupled development of population and streetcars in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Historic residence and network data were assembled for 1900-1930, and linear cross-sectional time-series models were estimated at both a tract and block level using this data. It is found that, in contrast with transportation systems that were expanded in response to increased demand, the rapid expansion of the streetcar system during the electric era has been driven by other forces and to a large extent led land development in the Twin Cities. The main forces that have driven this process include technological superiority, monopoly, close connections with real estate business, and peopleÕs reliance on the streetcar for mobility. Proximity to the streetcar is found to be a crucial factor that determines the distribution and development of residences: it is observed that residential density declines with the distance from streetcar lines, and significantly drops beyond a walkable distance; it is also observed that gaining a closer access to streetcar lines within 800 meters (about a half mile) predicts the increase in residential density to a significant extent.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2008. "How Streetcars Shaped Suburbanization: A Granger-Causality Analysis of Land Use and Transit in The Twin Cities," Working Papers 201003, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:nex:wpaper:streetcar
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11299/179996
    File Function: First version, 2008
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael J Corbett & Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2009. "Evolution of the Second-Story City: The Minneapolis Skyway System," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 36(4), pages 711-724, August.
    2. Robert Cervero & Mark Hansen, 2002. "Induced Travel Demand and Induced Road Investment: A Simultaneous Equation Analysis," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(3), pages 469-490, September.
    3. Michael Iacono & David Levinson & Ahmed El-Geneidy, 2007. "Models of Transportation and Land Use Change: A Guide to the Territory," Working Papers 200805, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    4. David Levinson, 2008. "Density and dispersion: the co-development of land use and rail in London," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 55-77, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lennox, James, 2023. "Spatial economic dynamics in transport project appraisal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Yuning Wang & Duanfang Lu & David Levinson, 2023. "Equilibrium or imbalance? Rail Transit and Land Use Mix in Station Areas," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2403-2421, December.
    3. David Levinson & Arthur Huang, 2012. "A Positive Theory of Network Connectivity," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 39(2), pages 308-325, April.
    4. Ibraeva, Anna & Correia, Gonçalo Homem de Almeida & Silva, Cecília & Antunes, António Pais, 2020. "Transit-oriented development: A review of research achievements and challenges," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 110-130.
    5. Atack, Jeremy & Margo, Robert, 2011. "The Impact of Access to Rail Transportation on Agricultural Improvement: The American Midwest as a Test Case, 1850-1860," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 4(2), pages 5-18.
    6. Hanlon, W.Walker & Heblich, Stephan, 2022. "History and urban economics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    7. Olaru, Doina & Mulley, Corinne & Smith, Brett & Ma, Liang, 2017. "Policy-led selection of the most appropriate empirical model to estimate hedonic prices in the residential market," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 213-228.
    8. Shoshanna Saxe & Dena Kasraian, 2020. "Rethinking environmental LCA life stages for transport infrastructure to facilitate holistic assessment," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(5), pages 1031-1046, October.
    9. Levinson, David, 2011. "The Coevolution of Transport and Land Use: An Introduction to the Special Issue and an Outline of a Research Agenda," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 4(2), pages 1-3.
    10. King, David A. & Fischer, Lauren Ames, 2016. "Streetcar projects as spatial planning: A shift in transport planning in the United States," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 383-390.
    11. Kyeongsu Kim & Michael L. Lahr, 2014. "The impact of Hudson-Bergen Light Rail on residential property appreciation," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93, pages 79-97, November.
    12. Hochmair, Hartwig H. & Bardin, Eric & Ahmouda, Ahmed, 2019. "Estimating bicycle trip volume for Miami-Dade county from Strava tracking data," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 58-69.
    13. Munira, Sirajum & Sener, Ipek N., 2020. "A geographically weighted regression model to examine the spatial variation of the socioeconomic and land-use factors associated with Strava bike activity in Austin, Texas," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transport; land use; Twin Cities (Minnesota); Streetcars; Light Rail Transit; network growth; induced demand; induced supply;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • N73 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N74 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: 1913-

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