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Contagion in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

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  • Brent Glover
  • Seth Richards-Shubik

Abstract

We use a network model of credit risk to measure market expectations of the potential spillovers from a sovereign default. Specifically, we develop an empirical model, based on the recent theoretical literature on contagion in financial networks, and estimate it with data on sovereign credit default swap spreads and the detailed structure of financial linkages among thirteen European sovereigns from 2005 to 2011. Simulations from the estimated model show that a sovereign default generates only small spillovers to other sovereigns. These results imply that credit markets do not demand a significant premium for the interconnectedness of sovereign debt in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Brent Glover & Seth Richards-Shubik, 2014. "Contagion in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 20567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20567
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    1. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015. "“Financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility: a connectedness analysis”," IREA Working Papers 201508, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2015.
    2. Gabriela Victoria Anghelache & Constantin ANGHELACHE & Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Radu STOICA, 2017. "Elements For Eu Cohesion Policy 2014-2020," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(5), pages 77-86, May.
    3. Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "Volatility spillovers in EMU sovereign bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 337-352.
    4. Julián Andrada-Félix & Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2018. "Fear connectedness among asset classes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(39), pages 4234-4249, August.
    5. Yiannis Kitromilides, 2016. "The Conundrum of Greece and the Eurozone: Puzzles, Paradoxes and Contradictions," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 63(2), pages 175-194, April.
    6. Andrada-Félix, Julián & Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2020. "Distant or close cousins: Connectedness between cryptocurrencies and traditional currencies volatilities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Dungey, Mardi & Islam, Raisul & Volkov, Vladimir, 2020. "Crisis transmission: Visualizing vulnerability," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    8. Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 126-145.
    9. Hamill, Philip A. & Li, Youwei & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Vigne, Samuel A. & Waterworth, James, 2021. "Was a deterioration in ‘connectedness’ a leading indicator of the European sovereign debt crisis?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Neha Seth & Monica Sighania, 2017. "Financial market contagion: selective review of reviews," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(4), pages 391-408, November.
    11. Pietro Bonaldi & Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis of Funding Costs Spillovers in the EURO-zone with Application to Systemic Risk," NBER Working Papers 21462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Peter Schwendner & Martin Schuele & Thomas Ott & Martin Hillebrand, 2015. "European Government Bond Dynamics and Stability Policies: Taming Contagion Risks," Working Papers 8, European Stability Mechanism.
    13. Pietro Bonaldi & Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Funding Cost Spillovers in the EURO Zone with Application to Systemic Risk," Working Papers 2015-4, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    14. Pietro Bonaldi & Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Funding Cost Spillovers in the EURO Zone with Application to Systemic Risk," Working Papers 2015-5, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    15. Julián Andrada-Félix & Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2022. "Time connectedness of fear," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 905-931, March.
      • Julián Andrada-Félixa & Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2018. "“Time connectedness of fear”," IREA Working Papers 201818, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2018.
    16. Madalina Anghel & Diana Dumitrescu & Daniel Dumitrescu, 2016. "Contribution of member states to European financing," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(9), pages 57-63, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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