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Market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis

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  • Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo
  • Serwa, Dobromil

Abstract

We study market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis. In our analysis we use a parsimonious CDS pricing model to estimate the probability of default (PD) and the loss given default (LGD) as perceived by financial markets. We find that separate identification of PD and LGD appears empirically tractable for a number of euro area countries. In our empirical results the estimated LGDs perceived by financial markets stay comfortably below 40% in most of the samples. We also find that macroeconomic and institutional developments were only weakly correlated with the market perception of sovereign credit risk, whereas financial contagion appears to have exerted a non-negligible effect. JEL Classification: C11, C32, G01, G12, G15

Suggested Citation

  • Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Serwa, Dobromil, 2014. "Market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1710, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20141710
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    Cited by:

    1. Zaghini, Andrea, 2016. "Fragmentation and heterogeneity in the euro-area corporate bond market: Back to normal?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 51-61.
    2. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Serwa, Dobromił, 2016. "Market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 168-189.
    3. Blot, Christophe & Ducoudré, Bruno & Timbeau, Xavier, 2016. "Sovereign debt spread and default in a model with self-fulfilling prophecies and asymmetric information," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 281-299.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1fftm81rkt8t48jjlb9s9fh2g5 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2021. "QE in the euro area: Has the PSPP benefited peripheral bonds?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2019. "QE in the euro area: Has the PSPP benefited peripheral bonds?," Ruhr Economic Papers 803, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Serhan Cevik & Belma Öztürkkal, 2021. "Contagion of fear: Is the impact of COVID‐19 on sovereign risk really indiscriminate?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 134-154, August.
    8. Michel Aglietta & Xavier Ragot, 2015. "Érosion du tissu productif en France. Causes et remèdes," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(6), pages 95-150.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5bhbhfsmhj981b00go8c6saind is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Giudice, Gabriele & de Manuel Aramendía, Mirzha & Kontolemis, Zenon & Monteiro, Daniel P., 2019. "A European safe asset to complement national government bonds," MPRA Paper 95748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Maria Czech, 2022. "The Impact of Covid-19 Dynamics on SCDS Spreads in Selected CEE Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 254-271.
    12. Ribeiro, Pedro Pires & Cermeño, Rodolfo & Curto, José Dias, 2017. "Sovereign bond markets and financial volatility dynamics: Panel-GARCH evidence for six euro area countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 107-114.
    13. Gonzalo Camba-Méndez & Konrad Kostrzewa & Anna Mospan & Dobromił Serwa, 2014. "Pricing sovereign credit risk of an emerging market," NBP Working Papers 189, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    14. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Souza, Ivan, 2020. "Sovereign default risk, debt uncertainty and fiscal credibility: The case of Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    15. Jung Park, Yuen & Kutan, Ali M. & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "The impacts of overseas market shocks on the CDS-option basis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 622-636.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7n3slb7mj68uoa4brsrd6gb2oa is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Rodríguez-López, Araceli & Fernández-Abascal, Hermenegildo & Maté-García, Jorge-Julio & Rodríguez-Fernández, José-Miguel & Rojo-García, José-Luis & Sanz-Gómez, José-Antonio, 2021. "Evaluating Euribor Manipulation: Effects on Mortgage Borrowers," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CDS spreads; euro area; loss given default. ECB; probability of default; sovereign credit risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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