IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/srk/srkops/201304.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing contagion risks from the CDS market

Author

Listed:
  • Markus Brunnermeier
  • Laurent Clerc
  • Yanis El Omari
  • Silvia Gabrieli
  • Steffen Kern
  • Christoph Memmel
  • Tuomas Peltonen
  • Natalia Podlich
  • Martin Scheicher
  • Guillaume Vuillemey

Abstract

Over the past few years the CDS market’s role has evolved from mostly providing default protection towards credit risk trading. The first-ever credit event in a developed country’s sovereign CDS has further highlighted the importance of the CDS market from a macro-prudential perspective. Developments in the European sovereign CDS market are a part of the major structural shift in euro sovereign debt: in the market’s view, there has been a significant shift from sovereign debt as a (default-free) risk-free benchmark (i.e. bearing interest rate risk only) to sovereign debt as a credit risk asset. Therefore, a significant repricing of the entire asset category has taken place, with major implications ranging from asset allocation to risk management. This implies that some policy issues are not necessarily and exclusively related to the CDS market, but are part of broader developments in the EU financial system. This Occasional Paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the CDS market from a macroprudential perspective. In order to so, a wide range of analytical approaches is applied: Structural analysis of the EU CDS market: description of the market structure, key segments, concentration and evolution over time. Network analysis of bilateral CDS exposures: description of the structure and resilience of the network at an aggregate level as well as of sub-samples. In particular, analysis is conducted on: (i) the aggregated CDS network; (ii) various sub-networks, such as the sovereign CDS network; and (iii) networks for particular CDS reference entities. In order to carry out this analysis, we applied the established literature on interbank and payment systems networks to the CDS exposures network. “Super-spreader” analysis: identification of key “too interconnected to fail” market participants, their activities in the CDS market and their risk-bearing capacity. Scenario analysis of sovereign credit risk: the impact of sovereign credit events on the EU banking system and their potential spillovers. Domino effects in the CDS market: estimation of default chain scenarios for major participants in the CDS market; again, following the literature on interbank networks, we analysed the network impact of the collapse of a major market participant. Comparison of market- and exposure-based assessments of contagion: systemic risk rankings based on market price estimates (e.g. CoVaR) are compared with the rankings obtained using confidential DTCC exposure data in order to understand to what extent market participants are aware of who is a systemically relevant trader in the CDS market and whether these measures of systemic risk are consistent. JEL Classification: G18, G33, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Brunnermeier & Laurent Clerc & Yanis El Omari & Silvia Gabrieli & Steffen Kern & Christoph Memmel & Tuomas Peltonen & Natalia Podlich & Martin Scheicher & Guillaume Vuillemey, 2013. "Assessing contagion risks from the CDS market," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 04, European Systemic Risk Board.
    • Handle: RePEc:srk:srkops:201304
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/occasional/20130917_occasional_paper_4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    2. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
    3. Alter, Adrian & Schüler, Yves S., 2012. "Credit spread interdependencies of European states and banks during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3444-3468.
    4. Roberto Rigobón & Kristin Forbes, 2001. "Contagion in Latin America: Definitions, Measurement, and Policy Implications," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-46, January.
    5. Gerlach, Stefan & Schulz, Alexander & Wolff, Guntram B., 2010. "Banking and sovereign risk in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    7. Stulz, Rene, 2010. "Credit default Swaps and the Credit Crisis," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 157-175.
    8. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    9. Langfield, Sam & Liu, Zijun & Ota, Tomohiro, 2014. "Mapping the UK interbank system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 288-303.
    10. Bech, Morten L. & Atalay, Enghin, 2010. "The topology of the federal funds market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(22), pages 5223-5246.
    11. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Gary Gorton & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2012. "Risk Topography," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 149-176.
    12. Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2016. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 126-140.
    13. Christoph Memmel & Angelika Sachs & Ingrid Stein, 2012. "Contagion in the Interbank Market with Stochastic Loss Given Default," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(3), pages 177-206, September.
    14. Sheri Markose & Simone Giansante & Mateusz Gatkowski & Ali Rais Shaghaghi, 2010. "Too Interconnected To Fail: Financial Contagion and Systemic Risk In Network Model of CDS and Other Credit Enhancement Obligations of US Banks," Working Papers 033, COMISEF.
    15. Mr. Damiano Sandri & Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2011. "The Eurozone Crisis: How Banks and Sovereigns Came to Be Joined At the Hip," IMF Working Papers 2011/269, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Scheicher, Martin & Vuillemey, Guillaume, 2014. "The network structure of the CDS market and its determinants," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 118-133.
    17. Irina Stanga, 2011. "Sovereign and Bank Credit Risk during the Global Financial Crisis," DNB Working Papers 314, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    18. Philippe Jorion & Gaiyan Zhang, 2009. "Credit Contagion from Counterparty Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2053-2087, October.
    19. C. H. Furfine, 1999. "Interbank exposures: quantifying the risk of contagion," BIS Working Papers 70, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Mink, Mark & de Haan, Jakob, 2013. "Contagion during the Greek sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 102-113.
    21. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-638, August.
    22. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    23. Völz, Manja & Wedow, Michael, 2011. "Market discipline and too-big-to-fail in the CDS market: Does banks' size reduce market discipline?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 195-210, March.
    24. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
    25. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    26. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    27. Viral V. Acharya & Stephen Schaefer & Yili Zhang, 2015. "Liquidity Risk and Correlation Risk: A Clinical Study of the General Motors and Ford Downgrade of May 2005," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1-51.
    28. repec:pri:metric:wp047_2012_brunnermeier_ssrn-id2103814.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Craig H. Furfine, 1999. "Interbank exposures: quantifying the risk of contagion," Proceedings 633, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    30. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    31. Ang, Andrew & Longstaff, Francis A., 2013. "Systemic sovereign credit risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 493-510.
    32. Ms. Edda Zoli & Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2009/222, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Michael Boss & Helmut Elsinger & Martin Summer & Stefan Thurner, 2004. "Network topology of the interbank market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 677-684.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Czech, Robert, 2021. "Credit default swaps and corporate bond trading," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    2. Danilo Drago & Concetta Carnevale & Raffaele Gallo, 2019. "Do corporate social responsibility ratings affect credit default swap spreads?," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(3), pages 644-652, May.
    3. Scheicher, Martin, 2023. "Intermediation in US and EU bond and swap markets: stylised facts, trends and impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis in March 2020," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 24, European Systemic Risk Board.
    4. Bellia, Mario & Panzica, Roberto & Pelizzon, Loriana & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2017. "The demand for central clearing: to clear or not to clear, that is the question," ESRB Working Paper Series 62, European Systemic Risk Board.
    5. Duffie, Darrell & Scheicher, Martin & Vuillemey, Guillaume, 2015. "Central clearing and collateral demand," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 237-256.
    6. Name 1 Dieter Wang Email 1 & Iman (I.P.P.) van Lelyveld & Julia (J.) Schaumburg, 2018. "Do information contagion and business model similarities explain bank credit risk commonalities?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-100/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Kanno, Masayasu, 2020. "Interconnectedness and systemic risk in the US CDS market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Vuillemey, G. & Breton, R., 2014. "Endogenous Derivative Networks," Working papers 483, Banque de France.
    9. Zema, Sebastiano Michele, 2022. "Uncovering the network structure of non-centrally cleared derivative markets: evidences from regulatory data," Working Paper Series 2721, European Central Bank.
    10. D’Errico, Marco & Battiston, Stefano & Peltonen, Tuomas & Scheicher, Martin, 2018. "How does risk flow in the credit default swap market?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 53-74.
    11. Bardoscia, Marco & Ferrara, Gerardo & Vause, Nicholas & Yoganayagam, Michael, 2021. "Simulating liquidity stress in the derivatives market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Kubitza, Christian & Pelizzon, Loriana & Getmansky, Mila, 2018. "The pitfalls of central clearing in the presence of systematic risk," ICIR Working Paper Series 31/18, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    13. Josef Brechler & Vaclav Hausenblas & Zlatuse Komarkova & Miroslav Plasil, 2014. "Similarity and Clustering of Banks: Application to the Credit Exposures of the Czech Banking Sector," Research and Policy Notes 2014/04, Czech National Bank.
    14. Clerc, L. & Gabrieli, S. & Kern, S. & El Omari, Y., 2014. "Monitoring the European CDS Market through Networks: Implications for Contagion Risks," Working papers 477, Banque de France.
    15. Anouk Levels & René de Sousa van Stralen & Sînziana Kroon Petrescu & Iman van Lelyveld, 2018. "CDS market structure and risk flows: the Dutch case," DNB Working Papers 592, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    16. Ferrara, Gerardo & Kim, Jun Sung & Koo, Bonsoo & Liu, Zijun, 2021. "Counterparty choice in the UK credit default swap market: An empirical matching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 58-74.
    17. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Scheicher, Martin & Vuillemey, Guillaume, 2014. "The network structure of the CDS market and its determinants," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 118-133.
    18. Name 1 Dieter Wang Email 1 & Iman (I.P.P.) van Lelyveld & Julia (J.) Schaumburg, 2018. "Do information contagion and business model similarities explain bank credit risk commonalities?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-100/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    19. Bratis, Theodoros & Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2020. "Systemic risk and financial stability dynamics during the Eurozone debt crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andre R. Neveu, 2018. "A survey of network-based analysis and systemic risk measurement," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 241-281, July.
    2. Maryam Farboodi, 2014. "Intermediation and Voluntary Exposure to Counterparty Risk," 2014 Meeting Papers 365, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Arun G. Chandrasekhar & Robert Townsend & Juan Pablo Xandri, 2018. "Financial Centrality and Liquidity Provision," NBER Working Papers 24406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.
    5. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    6. Arun Chandrasekhar & Robert Townsend & Juan Pablo Pablo Xandri, 2019. "Financial Centrality and the Value of Key Players," Working Papers 2019-26, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    7. Roman Garcia & Dimitri Lorenzani & Daniel Monteiro & Francesco Perticari & Bořek Vašíček & Lukas Vogel, 2021. "Financial Spillover and Contagion Risks in the Euro Area in 2007-2019," European Economy - Discussion Papers 137, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Papafilis, Michalis-Panayiotis & Psillaki, Maria & Margaritis, Dimitris, 2015. "Interdependence between Sovereign and Bank CDS Spreads in Eurozone during the European Debt Crisis - The PSI Effect," MPRA Paper 68037, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Avino, Davide & Cotter, John, 2014. "Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: Two sides of the same coin?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 72-85.
    10. Markose, Sheri & Giansante, Simone & Shaghaghi, Ali Rais, 2012. "‘Too interconnected to fail’ financial network of US CDS market: Topological fragility and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 627-646.
    11. Cetina, Jill & Paddrik, Mark & Rajan, Sriram, 2018. "Stressed to the core: Counterparty concentrations and systemic losses in CDS markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 38-52.
    12. Langfield, Sam & Liu, Zijun & Ota, Tomohiro, 2014. "Mapping the UK interbank system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 288-303.
    13. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Serwa, Dobromił, 2016. "Market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 168-189.
    14. Patrick Augustin, 2012. "Sovereign Credit Default Swap Premia," Working Papers 12-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    15. Calice, Giovanni & Mio, RongHui & Štěrba, Filip & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Short-term determinants of the idiosyncratic sovereign risk premium: A regime-dependent analysis for European credit default swaps," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 174-189.
    16. Fabio Caccioli & Paolo Barucca & Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2018. "Network models of financial systemic risk: a review," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 81-114, January.
    17. Sun, Lixin, 2020. "Financial networks and systemic risk in China's banking system," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    18. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Scheicher, Martin & Vuillemey, Guillaume, 2014. "The network structure of the CDS market and its determinants," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 118-133.
    19. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2013_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    21. Spiros Bougheas & Alan Kirman, 2015. "Complex Financial Networks and Systemic Risk: A Review," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Pasquale Commendatore & Saime Kayam & Ingrid Kubin (ed.), Complexity and Geographical Economics, edition 127, pages 115-139, Springer.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CDS; contagion; systemic risk; derivatives;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:srk:srkops:201304. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esrbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.