Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Tipping Points, Uncertainty and Weak Identification

Contents:

Author Info

  • Jean-Thomas Bernard
  • Michael Gavin
  • Lynda Khalaf
  • Marcel Voia

Abstract

We consider an empirical estimation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for carbon dioxide and sulphur, with a focus on confidence set estimation of the tipping point. Various econometric – parametric and nonparametric – methods are considered, reflecting the implications of persistence, endogeneity, the necessity of breaking down our panel regionally, and the small number of countries within each panel. In particular, we propose an inference method that corrects for potential weak-identification of the tipping point. Weak identification may occur if the true EKC is linear while a quadratic income term is nevertheless imposed into the estimated equation. Relevant literature to date confirms that non-linearity of the EKC is indeed not granted, which provides the motivation for our work. Viewed collectively, our results confirm an inverted U-shaped EKC in the OECD countries but generally not elsewhere, although a local-pollutant analysis suggest favorable exceptions beyond the OECD. Our measures of uncertainty confirm that it is difficult to identify economically plausible tipping points. Policy-relevant estimates of the tipping point can nevertheless be recovered from a local-pollutant long-run or non-parametric perspective.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: https://www.create.ulaval.ca/sites/create.ulaval.ca/files/Publications/create2011-4.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CREATE in its series Cahiers de recherche CREATE with number 2011-4.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lvl:creacr:2011-4

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Faculté des sciences de l'agriculture et de l'alimentation, Pavillon Paul-Comtois, 2425 rue de l'Agriculture, local 4424, Québec, Qc, G1V 0A6
Phone: 418-656-2131 poste 5098
Fax: 418-656-7821
Email:
Web page: http://www.create.ulaval.ca
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Environmental Kuznets Curve; Fieller method; Delta method; CO2 and SO2 emissions; Confidence set; Tipping point; Climate policy;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Thomas M. Selden, 1992. "Stoking the Fires? Co2 Emissions and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Nadhem Idoudi & Lynda Khalaf & Clément Yélou, 2007. "Finite sample inference methods for dynamic energy demand models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 1211-1226.
  4. Dinda, Soumyananda & Coondoo, Dipankor, 2006. "Income and emission: A panel data-based cointegration analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 167-181, May.
  5. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2004. "Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 431-455, August.
  6. Grossman, Gene M & Krueger, Alan B, 1995. "Economic Growth and the Environment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 353-77, May.
  7. Perman, Roger & Stern, David I., 2003. "Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests that the Environmental Kuznets Curve does not exist," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(3), September.
  8. Shafik, Nemat, 1994. "Economic Development and Environmental Quality: An Econometric Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(0), pages 757-73, Supplemen.
  9. Bun, Maurice J.G. & Carree, Martin A., 2005. "Bias-Corrected Estimation in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 200-210, April.
  10. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  11. Romero-Avila, Diego, 2008. "Questioning the empirical basis of the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2: New evidence from a panel stationarity test robust to multiple breaks and cross-dependence," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 559-574, January.
  12. List, John A. & Gallet, Craig A., 1999. "The environmental Kuznets curve: does one size fit all?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 409-423, December.
  13. Carlos Ordás Criado & Simone Valente & Thanasis Stengos, 2011. "Growth and Pollution Convergence: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 1106, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
  14. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin & Sun, Chia-Hung, 2010. "The environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for water pollution: Do regions matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 12-23, January.
  15. Giovanni S. F. Bruno, 2005. "Estimation and inference in dynamic unbalanced panel-data models with a small number of individuals," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 5(4), pages 473-500, December.
  16. David I. Stern, 2003. "The Rise and Fall of the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0302, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
  17. Baltagi, Badi H. & Li, Qi, 1992. "A Note on the Estimation of Simultaneous Equations with Error Components," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(01), pages 113-119, March.
  18. Richmond, Amy K. & Kaufmann, Robert K., 2006. "Is there a turning point in the relationship between income and energy use and/or carbon emissions?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 176-189, February.
  19. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  20. Cole, Matthew A., 2004. "Trade, the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental Kuznets curve: examining the linkages," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 71-81, January.
  21. Maurice J.G. Bun & Jan F. Kiviet, 2002. "The Effects of Dynamic Feedbacks on LS and MM Estimator Accuracy in Panel Data Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-101/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 19 Feb 2004.
  22. Panayotou, Theodore, 1997. "Demystifying the environmental Kuznets curve: turning a black box into a policy tool," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(04), pages 465-484, November.
  23. Jean-Marie Dufour, 1997. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Structural and Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1365-1388, November.
  24. Susmita Dasgupta & Benoit Laplante & Hua Wang & David Wheeler, 2002. "Confronting the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 147-168, Winter.
  25. Wagner, Martin, 2008. "The carbon Kuznets curve: A cloudy picture emitted by bad econometrics?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 388-408, August.
  26. Daniel L. Millimet & John A. List & Thanasis Stengos, 2003. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Real Progress or Misspecified Models?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1038-1047, November.
  27. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
  28. Cole, M.A. & Rayner, A.J. & Bates, J.M., 1997. "The environmental Kuznets curve: an empirical analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(04), pages 401-416, November.
  29. Jalil, Abdul & Mahmud, Syed F., 2009. "Environment Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: A cointegration analysis for China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5167-5172, December.
  30. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  31. Stern, David I. & Common, Michael S. & Barbier, Edward B., 1996. "Economic growth and environmental degradation: The environmental Kuznets curve and sustainable development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1151-1160, July.
  32. David I. Stern, 2012. "Ecological Economics," Crawford School Research Papers 1203, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  33. Shujie Ma & Jeffrey S. Racine, 2012. "Additive Regression Splines With Irrelevant Categorical and Continuous Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2012-07, McMaster University.
  34. David I. Stern & Tony Auld & Michael S. Common & Kali K. Sanyal, 1998. "Is there an environmental Kuznets curve for sulfur?," Working Papers in Ecological Economics 9804, Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Ecological Economics Program.
  35. Azomahou, Théophile & Laisney, François & van Phu, Nguyen, 2005. "Economic Development and CO2 Emissions: A Nonparametric Panel Approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-56, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  36. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
  37. Eugenio Figueroa & Roberto Pastén, 2009. "Country-specific environmental Kuznets curves: a random coefficient approach applied to high-income countries," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 36(1 Year 20), pages 5-32, June.
  38. Selden Thomas M. & Song Daqing, 1994. "Environmental Quality and Development: Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 147-162, September.
  39. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
  40. Herman R.J. Vollebergh & Bertrand Melenberg & Elbert Dijkgraaf, 2007. "Identifying Reduced-Form Relations with Panel Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-072/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  41. Vollebergh, Herman R.J. & Melenberg, Bertrand & Dijkgraaf, Elbert, 2009. "Identifying reduced-form relations with panel data: The case of pollution and income," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 27-42, July.
  42. Bolduc, Denis & Khalaf, Lynda & Yélou, Clément, 2010. "Identification robust confidence set methods for inference on parameter ratios with application to discrete choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 317-327, August.
  43. James H. Stock, 2010. "The Other Transformation in Econometric Practice: Robust Tools for Inference," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 83-94, Spring.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Martinangeli, Andrea & Zoli, Mariangela, 2013. "Exploring Environmentally Significant Behaviors in a Multidimensional Perspective," Working Papers in Economics 561, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  2. Choumert, Johanna & Combes Motel, Pascale & Dakpo, Hervé K., 2013. "Is the Environmental Kuznets Curve for deforestation a threatened theory? A meta-analysis of the literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 19-28.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lvl:creacr:2011-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Johanne Perron).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.