Unemployment Risk and the Timing of Homeownership in Japan
AbstractThe effect of unemployment risk on the timing of homeownership is examined through the use of a retrospective panel of Japanese households. We obtain the following results by applying the split population duration (SPD) model: (1) unemployment risk, as proxied by the probability of unemployment, has a significantly negative effect on homeownership and delays its timing, (2) the effect of unemployment risk is overestimated in previous studies, which assume that all households will eventually become homeowners, and (3) household characteristics as well as the conditions of housing and labour markets at the early stages of a household's life cycle play an important role in the determination of its housing purchase. Finally, our simulation results indicate that an initial one-year unemployment spell will have a fairly large impact of 1.6-year delay in the timing of a subsequent home purchase.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program in its series Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series with number 2008-026.
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 2-15-45, Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo 108-8345
Web page: http://ies.keio.ac.jp/old_project/old/gcoe-econbus/
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Moriizumi, Yoko & Naoi, Michio, 2011. "Unemployment risk and the timing of homeownership in Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 227-235, May.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Piyush Tiwari & Edwin Deutsch & Yoko Moriizumi, 2007. "Housing Finance Arrangements, Wealth Positioning and Housing Consumption in Japan: An Analysis of Built-for-sale Homeowners," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 347-367, April.
- DeYoung, Robert, 2003. "The failure of new entrants in commercial banking markets: a split-population duration analysis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 7-33.
- Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "Labor income uncertainty, skewness and homeownership: A panel data study for Germany and Spain," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 156-176, July.
- Machin, Stephen & Manning, Alan, 1999.
"The causes and consequences of longterm unemployment in Europe,"
Handbook of Labor Economics,
in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 47, pages 3085-3139
- Stephen Machin & Alan Manning, 1998. "The Causes and Consequences of Long-Term Unemployment in Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp0400, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Fu, Yuming, 1995. "Uncertainty, liquidity, and housing choices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 223-236, April.
- Berg, G.J. & Ours, J.C., 1993.
"Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence,"
Serie Research Memoranda
0022, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- Deutsch, Edwin & Tiwari, Piyush & Moriizumi, Yoko, 2006. "The slowdown in the timing of housing purchases in Japan in the 1990s," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 230-256, September.
- Belzil, Christian, 1995. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment over Time: An Analysis with Event History Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 113-26, February.
- Bart Cockx & Matteo Picchio, 2009.
"Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2569, CESifo Group Munich.
- Bart Cockx & Matteo Picchio, 2012. "Are Short-lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(5), pages 646-675, October.
- Bart COCKX & Matteo PICCHIO, 2009. "Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2009004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- B. Cockx & M. Picchio, 2009. "Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/560, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Cockx, Bart & Picchio, Matteo, 2009. "Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?," IZA Discussion Papers 4007, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Cockx, B. & Picchio, M., 2010. "Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?," Discussion Paper 2010-95, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio, 2002.
"Private Transfers, Borrowing Constraints and the Timing of Homeownership,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 315-39, May.
- Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio, 1998. "Private Transfers, Borrowing Constraints and the Timing of Homeownership," CEPR Discussion Papers 2050, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 1999. "Private Transfers, Borrowing Constraints and the Timing of Homeownership," CSEF Working Papers 17, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Martin Forster & Andrew M. Jones, 2001.
"The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: Duration analysis of British data,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A,
Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(3), pages 517-547.
- Martin Forster & Andrew Jones, 2000. "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: duration analysis of British data," Working Papers 176chedp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
- Robst, John & Deitz, Richard & McGoldrick, KimMarie, 1999. "Income variability, uncertainty and housing tenure choice1," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 219-229, March.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Karen E. Dynan & Spencer D. Krane, 1999.
"Unemployment risk and precautionary wealth: evidence from households' balance sheets,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1999-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Christopher D. Carroll & Karen E. Dynan & Spencer D. Krane, 2003. "Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households' Balance Sheets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 586-604, August.
- Christopher D Carroll & Karen E Dynan & Spencer D Krane, 1999. "Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households' Balance Sheets," Economics Working Paper Archive 416, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Stewart, Mark, 2006.
"The Inter-related Dynamics of Unemployment and Low-Wage Employment,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
741, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Mark B. Stewart, 2007. "The interrelated dynamics of unemployment and low-wage employment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 511-531.
- Haurin, Donald R. & Gill, H. Leroy, 1987. "Effects of income variability on the demand for owner-occupied housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 136-150, September.
- Michael P. Kidd & Sandra Hopkins, 2004. "The Hazards of Starting and Quitting Smoking: Some Australian Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(249), pages 177-192, 06.
- Engen, Eric M. & Gruber, Jonathan, 2001. "Unemployment insurance and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 545-579, June.
- DeSalvo, Joseph S. & Eeckhoudt, Louis R., 1982. "Household behavior under income uncertainty in a monocentric urban area," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 98-111, January.
- Nickell, Stephen, 1998. "Unemployment: Questions and Some Answers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 802-16, May.
- Di Salvo, Pamela & Ermisch, John, 1997. "Analysis of the Dynamics of Housing Tenure Choice in Britain," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 1-17, July.
- Peter Schmidt & Ann Dryden Witte, 1989.
"Predicting Criminal Recidivism Using "Split Population" Survival Time Models,"
NBER Working Papers
2445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schmidt, Peter & Witte, Ann Dryden, 1989. "Predicting criminal recidivism using 'split population' survival time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-159, January.
- Berg, G. van den & Ours, J.C. van, 1996. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-86874, Tilburg University.
- Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "On the negative relationship between labor income uncertainty and homeownership: Risk-aversion vs. credit constraints," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 109-126, June.
- Moriizumi, Yoko, 2003. "Targeted saving by renters for housing purchase in Japan," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 494-509, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Global COE Program Office).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.