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Predicting Criminal Recidivism Using "Split Population" Survival Time Models

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Author Info
Peter Schmidt
Ann Dryden Witte

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Abstract

In this paper we develop a survival time model in which the probability of eventual failure is less than one, and in which both the probability of eventual failure and the timing of failure depend (separately) on individual characteristics. We apply this model to data on the tiring of return to prison for a sample of prison releasees, and we use it to make predictions of whether or not individuals return to prison. Our predictions are more accurate than previous predictions of criminal recidivism. The model we develop has potential applications in economics: far example, it could tie used to model the probability of default and the timing of default on loans.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2445.

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Date of creation: Feb 1989
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2445

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  1. Kiefer, Nicholas M., 1985. "Specification diagnostics based on Laguerre alternatives for econometric models of duration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 135-154, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hoffman, Peter B. & Stone-Meierhoefer, Barbara, 1979. "Post release arrest experiences of federal prisoners: A six-year follow-up," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 193-216. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1981. "Econometric modelling with non-normal disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 141-155, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Robert DeYoung, 2000. "For how long are newly chartered banks financially fragile?," Working Paper Series WP-00-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kostas G. Mavromaras & Chris D. Orme, 2004. "Temporary layoffs and split population models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 49-67. [Downloadable!]
  4. Wayne Thomas, 2001. "The Decision to Return to Full-time Education," Education Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 37-51, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Michael Podgursky & Paul Swaim, 1992. "To Search or Not to Search: Female Labor Supply Following Job Displacement," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 111-124, Winter. [Downloadable!]
  7. Addison, John T. & Portugal, Pedro, 2001. "Unemployment Duration: Competing and Defective Risks," IZA Discussion Papers 350, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Robert DeYoung & Iftekhar Hasan & William C. Hunter, 1999. "The Determinants of De Novo Bank Survival," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-066, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
  9. David Madden, 2002. "Do Tobacco Taxes Influence Starting and Quitting Smoking? A Duration Analysis Approach Using Evidence from a Sample of Irish Women," Working Papers 200206, School Of Economics, University College Dublin. [Downloadable!]
  10. Martin Forster & Andrew M. Jones, . "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking," Discussion Papers 00/51, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jurajda, Stepán, 2001. "Estimating the Effect of Unemployment Insurance Compensation on the Labor Market Histories of Displaced Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 294, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  12. Christian Schluter, 1997. "On the Non-Stationarity of German Income Mobility (and some observations on poverty dynamics)," STICERD - Distributional Analysis Research Programme Papers 30, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  13. Steven D. Levitt, 1995. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence From Prison Overcrowding Litigation," NBER Working Papers 5119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Govert E. Bijwaard, 2007. "Modeling Migration Dynamics of Immigrants: The Case of The Netherlands," IZA Discussion Papers 2891, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  15. Atanu Saha, Lynette Hilton, 2000. "A New Approach to Estimating Damages in Mass Torts," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 27-46, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Marius Ooms & Kees van Montfort & Victor van der Geest, 2007. "Estimating Systematic Continuous-time Trends in Recidivism using a Non-Gaussian Panel Data Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-027/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Patricia M. Danzon & Andrew J. Epstein, 2008. "Effects of Regulation on Drug Launch and Pricing in Interdependent Markets," NBER Working Papers 14041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. O. Emre Ergungor & C.N.V. Krishnan & Ajai K. Singh & Allan A. Zebedee, 2005. "Offer-price discount of bank seasoned equity offers: do voluntary and involuntary offers convey different information?," Working Paper 0515, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  19. Silja Göhlmann, 2007. "The Determinants of Smoking Initiation: Empirical Evidence for Germany," SOEPpapers 62, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). [Downloadable!]
  20. TSURUTA Daisuke & Peng XU, 2007. "Debt Structure and Bankruptcy of Financially Distressed Small Businesses," Discussion papers 07032, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
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