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Unemployment risk, house price risk and the transition into home ownership in the United Kingdom

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  • Gathergood, John

Abstract

Using household panel data, this paper examines the impact of income uncertainty, in the form of unemployment risk, on home ownership in the United Kingdom. The existing literature based on cross-sectional studies finds a negative relationship between income uncertainty and home ownership. This paper utilises data on transitions into home ownership and exogenous variation in unemployment risk, avoiding the endogeneity of employment to home ownership status. It also conditions the empirical estimates on a measure of house price volatility utilising a local-level house price index to control house price risk, which might also discourage home ownership. Results show a strong role for unemployment risk in lowering the likelihood of house purchase, but no statistically significant role for house price risk.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Housing Economics.

Volume (Year): 20 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 200-209

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:20:y:2011:i:3:p:200-209

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622881

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Keywords: Home ownership Income uncertainty House price uncertainty;

References

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  1. Fu, Yuming, 1995. "Uncertainty, liquidity, and housing choices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 223-236, April.
  2. Rui Yao, 2005. "Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Choices with Risky Housing and Borrowing Constraints," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 197-239.
  3. Robst, John & Deitz, Richard & McGoldrick, KimMarie, 1999. "Income variability, uncertainty and housing tenure choice1," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 219-229, March.
  4. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Erik Hurst, 2002. "The Transition To Home Ownership And The Black-White Wealth Gap," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 281-297, May.
  5. Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 2001. "Aging and Housing Equity: Another Look," NBER Working Papers 8608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Stephen H. Shore & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Commitment, Risk, and Consumption: Do Birds of a Feather Have Bigger Nests?," NBER Working Papers 11588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Haurin, Donald R. & Gill, H. Leroy, 1987. "Effects of income variability on the demand for owner-occupied housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 136-150, September.
  8. Engelhardt, Gary V, 1996. "Consumption, Down Payments, and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 255-71, May.
  9. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 2002. "Tenure choice and the riskiness of non-housing consumption," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 266-279, September.
  10. Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 1989. "But They Don't Want to Reduce Housing Equity," NBER Working Papers 2859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005. "Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 763-789, May.
  12. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "On the negative relationship between labor income uncertainty and homeownership: Risk-aversion vs. credit constraints," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 109-126, June.
  13. Henderson, J Vernon & Ioannides, Yannis M, 1983. "A Model of Housing Tenure Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 98-113, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Qingyu, Zhu, 2010. "Regional unemployment and house price determination," MPRA Paper 41785, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Jansson, Thomas, 2013. "Housing Choices and Labor Income Risk," Working Paper Series 272, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

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