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Unemployment risk and the timing of homeownership in Japan

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  • Moriizumi, Yoko
  • Naoi, Michio

Abstract

We examine the effect of unemployment risk on the timing of homeownership applying a survival analysis approach. Empirical results from the Split Population Duration (SPD) model suggest that: (1) unemployment risk has a significantly negative effect on homeownership and delays its timing even after controlling for income variability measures, (2) the null hypothesis that every household will eventually become a homeowner is rejected, which supports the SPD model against the standard duration model, and (3) the standard duration model underestimates the effects of both unemployment risk and income variability. Finally, our simulation results indicate that changes in unemployment risk have a fairly large impact on the probability of home purchase--a 10 percentile increase in unemployment probability from its median level would reduce the probability by 2.0 percentage point, whereas comparable changes in income variability measures would reduce the probability mere 0.2-0.3 percentage points.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Regional Science and Urban Economics.

Volume (Year): 41 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 227-235

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Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:41:y:2011:i:3:p:227-235

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/regec

Related research

Keywords: Timing of homeownership Unemployment risk SPD model;

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  1. Moriizumi, Yoko, 2003. "Targeted saving by renters for housing purchase in Japan," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 494-509, May.
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  8. Stewart, Mark, 2006. "The Inter-related Dynamics of Unemployment and Low-Wage Employment," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 741, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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  11. Robst, John & Deitz, Richard & McGoldrick, KimMarie, 1999. "Income variability, uncertainty and housing tenure choice1," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 219-229, March.
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  13. Deutsch, Edwin & Tiwari, Piyush & Moriizumi, Yoko, 2006. "The slowdown in the timing of housing purchases in Japan in the 1990s," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 230-256, September.
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  15. Machin, Stephen & Manning, Alan, 1999. "The causes and consequences of longterm unemployment in Europe," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 47, pages 3085-3139 Elsevier.
  16. Berg, G.J. & Ours, J.C., 1993. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence," Serie Research Memoranda 0022, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  17. Belzil, Christian, 1995. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment over Time: An Analysis with Event History Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 113-26, February.
  18. DeSalvo, Joseph S. & Eeckhoudt, Louis R., 1982. "Household behavior under income uncertainty in a monocentric urban area," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 98-111, January.
  19. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "On the negative relationship between labor income uncertainty and homeownership: Risk-aversion vs. credit constraints," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 109-126, June.
  20. Nickell, Stephen, 1998. "Unemployment: Questions and Some Answers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 802-16, May.
  21. Haurin, Donald R. & Gill, H. Leroy, 1987. "Effects of income variability on the demand for owner-occupied housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 136-150, September.
  22. Fu, Yuming, 1995. "Uncertainty, liquidity, and housing choices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 223-236, April.
  23. Engen, Eric M. & Gruber, Jonathan, 2001. "Unemployment insurance and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 545-579, June.
  24. Di Salvo, Pamela & Ermisch, John, 1997. "Analysis of the Dynamics of Housing Tenure Choice in Britain," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 1-17, July.
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