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Enlarging the EMU to the East: What Effects on Trade?

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  • Belke, Ansgar

    ()
    (University of Duisburg-Essen)

  • Spies, Julia

    ()
    (Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW))

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to assess the implications of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) accession of eight Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) on their share in EMU-12 imports. Overcoming biases related to endogeneity, omitted variables and sample selection, our results indicate that the common currency has boosted intra-EMU imports by 7%. Under the assumption that the same relationship between the explanatory variables and imports will hold for EMU-CEEC trade, we are able to predict the future impact of the Euro. Our findings suggest that except for the least integrated countries, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, all CEECs can expect increases in the EMU-12 import share.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 3647.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Empirica, 2008, 35 (4), 369-389
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3647

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Keywords: Euro area enlargement; Central and Eastern European countries; gravity model; panel estimation;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ansgar Belke & Ingo Bordon & Inna Melnykovska & Rainer Schweickert, 2009. "Prospective NATO or EU Membership and Institutional Change in Transition Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 915, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Matthieu Bussière & Jarko Fidrmuc & Bernd Schnatz, 2008. "EU Enlargement and Trade Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 562-576, 08.
  3. Andrzej Cieslik, Jan Michalek, Anna Michalek, 2013. "The Impact of the Common Currency on Exports of New EMU Members: Firm-level Evidence for Slovenia and Slovakia," Equilibrium, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 8, pages 7-23.
  4. Timo Mitze, 2010. "Estimating Gravity Models of International Trade with Correlated Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_22, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  5. Timo Mitze & Björn Alecke & Gerhard Untiedt, 2009. "Trade-FDI Linkages in a System of Gravity Equations for German Regional Data," Ruhr Economic Papers 0084, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  6. Estrella Gómez & Juliette Milgram Baleix, 2012. "EMU impact of on third countries’ exports. A gravity approach," ThE Papers 10/26, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
  7. Breusch, Trevor & Ward, Michael B & Nguyen, Hoa & Kompas, Tom, 2010. "On the fixed-effects vector decomposition," MPRA Paper 21452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "An evaluation of the EU's Fifth Enlargement With special focus on Bulgaria and Romania," European Economy - Economic Papers 361, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  9. Ansgar Belke & Ingo Bordon & Inna Melnykovska & Rainer Schweickert, 2009. "Prospective Membership and Institutional Change in Transition Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1562, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  10. Fritz Breuss, 2007. "A Prototype Model of EU's 2007 Enlargement," FIW Working Paper series 007, FIW.
  11. Timo Mitze, 2009. "Endogeneity in Panel Data Models with Time-Varying and Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0083, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  12. Mihai Rebiga, 2010. "Is Romania Ready for Adopting Euro?," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 15.
  13. Andrzej Cieslik, Jan Jakub Michalek, Jerzy Mycielski, 2012. "Euro and Trade Flows in Central Europe," Equilibrium, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 7, pages 7-25.
  14. Mitze, Timo & Alecke, Björn & Untiedt, Gerhard, 2008. "Trade, FDI and Cross-Variable Linkages: A German (Macro-)Regional Perspective," MPRA Paper 12245, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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