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New Member States' Trading Potential Following EMU Accession: A Gravity Approach

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  • Maryla Maliszewska
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    Abstract

    The purpose of this paper is to look at implications of the EMU accession on international trade flows of the new member states with members of the enlarged EU. I begin with the evaluation of an early impact of the EMU on trade based on a gravity model. The results are then employed in the calculation of potential levels of trade of the Central and East European countries. The results show a high degree of trade integration between most of the new member states and the EU except for Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. In trade among the new member states, potential trade flows by far exceed actual levels for all countries except the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

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    File URL: http://www.case-research.eu/upload/publikacja_plik/3565756_286ok2.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research in its series CASE Network Studies and Analyses with number 0286.

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    Length: 19 Pages
    Date of creation: 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0286

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    Related research

    Keywords: international trade; gravity model; currency union; Eastern Europe;

    References

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    1. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October.
    2. Gros, Daniel & Gonciarz, Andrzej, 1996. "A note on the trade potential of Central and Eastern Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 709-721, December.
    3. David Barr & Francis Breedon & David Miles, 2003. "Life on the outside: economic conditions and prospects outside euroland," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 573-613, October.
    4. Francisco Alcalá & Antonio Ciccone, 2001. "Trade and productivity," Economics Working Papers 580, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2002.
    5. Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU enlargement: economic implications for countries and industries," CPB Document 11, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
    7. repec:att:wimass:9713 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Alan V. Deardorff, 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Working Papers 5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
    10. David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2000. "Explaining the Border Effect: The Role of Exchange Rate Variability, Shipping Costs, and Geography," NBER Working Papers 7836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 281-316, April.
    12. Maurice J.G. Bun & Franc J.G.M. Klaassen, 2002. "Has the Euro increased Trade?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-108/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Nilsson, Lars, 2000. "Trade integration and the EU economic membership criteria," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 807-827, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Belke, Ansgar & Spies, Julia, 2008. "Enlarging the EMU to the East: What Effects on Trade?," IZA Discussion Papers 3647, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Tomasz Daras & Jan Hagemejer, 2009. "The long run-effects of the Poland’s accession to the eurozone. Simulation using POLDYN – a dynamic computable general equilibrium model," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 70, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
    3. Andrzej Cieslik, Jan Jakub Michalek, Jerzy Mycielski, 2012. "Euro and Trade Flows in Central Europe," Equilibrium, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 7, pages 7-25.

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