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The Exchange Rate, Employment and Hours: What Firm-Level Data Say

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  • Francesco Nucci
  • Alberto Franco Pozzolo

Abstract

Using a representative panel of manufacturing firms, we estimate the response of job and hours worked to currency swings, showing that it depends primarily on firms’ exposure to foreign sales and their reliance on imported inputs. We also show that, for given international exposure, the response to exchange rate fluctuations is magnified when firms exhibit a lower monopoly power and when they face foreign pressure in the domestic market through import penetration. The degree of substitutability between imported and other inputs and the distribution of workers by type introduce additional degrees of specificity in the employment sensitivity to exchange rate swings. We show that firms’ export status and episodes of entry and exit in the export market are associated with a heterogeneous employment response to exchange rate variations. Wage adjustments are shown to provide a channel through which firms react to currency shocks. Finally, gross job fiows within the firm are found to react to exchange rate fluctuations, but the effect on job creation is predominant.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance in its series Working Papers with number 9.

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Length: 50
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Handle: RePEc:itt:wpaper:wp2009-9

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Web page: http://www.dt.tesoro.it
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Keywords: Employment; Exchange Rate; Firms’ Foreign Exposure;

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References

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  1. Revenga, Ana L, 1992. "Exporting Jobs? The Impact of Import Competition on Employment and Wages in U.S. Manufacturing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 255-84, February.
  2. Andrew Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen Redding & Peter Schott, 2007. "Firms in International Trade," Working Papers 07-14, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  3. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 1997. "Exceptional Exporter Performance: Cause, Effect, or Both?," NBER Working Papers 6272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Jobs: What Do We Learn from Job Flows?," NBER Working Papers 6864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Mark J. Melitz, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," NBER Working Papers 8881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Klein, Michael W. & Schuh, Scott & Triest, Robert K., 2003. "Job creation, job destruction, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 239-265, March.
  7. Simon Burgess & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "An International Comparison of Employment Adjustment to Exchange Rate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  9. Michael W. Klein & Scott Schuh & Robert K. Triest, 2002. "Job creation, job destruction, and international competition: a literature review," Working Papers 02-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  10. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1999. "Employment versus Wage Adjustment and the U.S. Dollar," Working Papers 99-07, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  11. Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Local Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 6985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  13. Thierry Mayer & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2008. "The Happy Few: The Internationalisation of European Firms," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 135-148, May.
  14. Nucci, Francesco & Pozzolo, Alberto F., 2001. "Investment and the exchange rate: An analysis with firm-level panel data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 259-283, February.
  15. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," NBER Working Papers 1769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Murphy, Gavin & Siedschlag, Iulia, 2012. "The Effect of Real Exchange Rate Changes on Labour Productivity Growth," Papers WP439, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  2. Mai Dao & Ruo Chen, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate and Employment in China," IMF Working Papers 11/148, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Risheng Mao & John Whalley, 2011. "Ownership Characteristics, Real Exchange Rate Movements and Labor Market Adjustment in China," NBER Working Papers 17565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lo Turco, Alessia & Maggioni, Daniela & Picchio, Matteo, 2013. "Offshoring and job stability: Evidence from Italian manufacturing," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 27-46.
  5. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou, 2012. "Exchange rate risk in the US stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 137-150.
  6. Andrea Lassmann, 2013. "Exchange Rate Transmission and Export Activity at the Firm Level," KOF Working papers 13-331, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

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