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Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Empirical Exploration

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  • Mr. Ayhan Kose
  • Mr. Marco Terrones
  • Mr. Eswar S Prasad

Abstract

This paper analyzes the evolution of volatility and cross-country comovement in output, consumption, and investment fluctuations using two distinct datasets. The results suggest that there has been a significant decline in the volatility of business cycle fluctuations and a slight increase in the degree of cyclical comovement among industrialized countries over time. However, for emerging market economies, financial globalization appears to have been associated, on average, with an increase in macroeconomic volatility as well as declines in the degree of comovement of output and consumption growth with their corresponding world aggregates.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ayhan Kose & Mr. Marco Terrones & Mr. Eswar S Prasad, 2003. "Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 2003/246, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/246
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    Cited by:

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    2. Beja, Edsel, 2009. "Things are different when you open up: Economic openness, domestic economy, and income," MPRA Paper 12802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jaime Espinosa-Bowen & Mr. Nadeem Ilahi & Fahad Alturki, 2009. "How Russia Affects the Neighborhood - Trade, Financial, and Remittance Channels," IMF Working Papers 2009/277, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2011. "Labor Market Institutions And Macroeconomic Volatility In A Panel Of Oecd Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(3), pages 396-413, July.
    5. Andros Kourtellos & Ioanna Stylianou & Chih Ming Tan, 2013. "Robust Multiple Regimes in Growth Volatility," Working Paper series 52_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    6. Winston Moore, 2014. "Managing The Process Of Removing Capital Controls: What Does The Literature Suggest?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 209-237, April.
    7. Lucio Vinhas de Souza, 2004. "Financial Liberalization and Business Cycles: The Experience of Future EU Member States in the Baltics and Central Eastern Europe," International Finance 0403009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mr. Nadeem Ilahi & Riham Shendy, 2008. "Do the Gulf Oil-Producing Countries Influence Regional Growth? The Impact of Financial and Remittance Flows," IMF Working Papers 2008/167, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Pierluigi Montalbano & Alessandro Federici & Umberto Triulzi & Carlo Pietrobelli, 2005. "Trade Openness and Vulnerability in Central and Eastern Europe," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2005-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2007. "Business cycle transmission from the US to Germany--A structural factor approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 521-551, April.
    11. Andros Kourtellos & Ioanna Stylianou & Chih Tan, 2015. "Robust multiple regimes in growth volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 461-491, February.
    12. Stan du Plessis, 2006. "Business Cycles in Emerging market Economies: A New View of the Stylised Facts," Working Papers 02/2006, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    13. Fernando Broner & Jaume Ventura, 2011. "Globalization and Risk Sharing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(1), pages 49-82.
    14. repec:vuw:vuwscr:19136 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Austria: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2005/249, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Yongfu Huang, 2011. "Private investment and financial development in a globalized world," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 43-56, August.
    17. Linda S. Goldberg, 2004. "Financial-sector foreign direct investment and host countries: new and old lessons," Staff Reports 183, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Naseer, Ahsan & Su, Chi-Wei & Mirza, Nawazish & Li, Jing-Ping, 2020. "Double jeopardy of resources and investment curse in South Asia: Is technology the only way out?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    19. Boyle, Glenn, 2009. "Capital Market Integration: A Review of the Issues and an Assessment of New Zealand's Position," Working Paper Series 19136, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    20. Linda S. Goldberg, 2007. "Financial sector FDI and host countries: new and old lessons," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 13(Mar), pages 1-17.
    21. Yetman, James, 2011. "Exporting recessions: International links and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 12-14, January.
    22. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Common stationary and non-stationary factors in the euro area analyzed in a large-scale factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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