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Do the Gulf Oil-Producing Countries Influence Regional Growth? The Impact of Financial and Remittance Flows

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  • Mr. Nadeem Ilahi
  • Riham Shendy

Abstract

This paper tests the association between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries' financial and remittance outflows and regional growth in the Middle East. The findings, based on 35-year panel data, indicate that growth rates of real GDP, private consumption and private investment in regional countries are strongly associated with remittance outflows from and the accumulation of financial surpluses in the GCC. Unlike in other developing and emerging market countries, growth in regional countries is not influenced by growth in the North, and is not export led. Linkages with the GCC could help sustain output growth in the regional countries in the face of the global economic slowdown and oil price shocks and could provide diversification gains to international capital seeking markets uncorrelated with Northern and emerging market countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Nadeem Ilahi & Riham Shendy, 2008. "Do the Gulf Oil-Producing Countries Influence Regional Growth? The Impact of Financial and Remittance Flows," IMF Working Papers 2008/167, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/167
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jaime Espinosa-Bowen & Mr. Nadeem Ilahi & Fahad Alturki, 2009. "How Russia Affects the Neighborhood - Trade, Financial, and Remittance Channels," IMF Working Papers 2009/277, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Hamna Ahmed, 2009. "Capital Flows and Real Exchange Rate Overvaluation - A Chronic Ailment: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 14(Special E), pages 51-86, September.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2015. "The transmission of oil and food prices to consumer prices," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 143-161, March.
    4. Mushtaq Ahmad Malik & Tariq Masood, 2020. "Analysis of Growth Accounting and Convergence in MENA Countries: Panel Cointegration Approach," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(2), pages 237-262, December.
    5. Ms. Iyabo Masha & Ding Ding, 2012. "India's Growth Spillovers to South Asia," IMF Working Papers 2012/056, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Dalia S. Hakura & Francesco Grigoli, 2014. "Recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan: have macroeconomic policies been effective?," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 45-65, January.
    7. Balli, Faruk & Basher, Syed Abul & Jean Louis, Rosmy, 2012. "Risk Sharing in the Middle East and North Africa: The Role of Remittances and Factor Incomes," MPRA Paper 40739, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bayramov, Vugar & Rustamli, Nabi & Abbas, Gulnara, 2020. "Collateral damage: The Western sanctions on Russia and the evaluation of implications for Russia’s post-communist neighbourhood," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 92-109.
    9. repec:zbw:rwirep:0448 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2013. "The Transmission of Oil and Food Prices to Consumer Prices – Evidence for the MENA Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0448, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian, 2013. "The Transmission of Oil and Food Prices to Consumer Prices – Evidence for the MENA Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 448, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Alshammari Nayef & Faras Reyadh & Alshuwaiee Wael, 2022. "Economic and Political Drivers of Remittance Transfer," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 54-67, June.
    13. Tahsin Saadi Sedik & Mr. Oral Williams, 2011. "Global and Regional Spillovers to GCC Equity Markets," IMF Working Papers 2011/138, International Monetary Fund.

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