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The Impact of a Negative Labor Demand Shock on Fertility - Evidence from the Fall of the Berlin Wall

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  • Hannah Liepmann

Abstract

How does a negative labor demand shock impact individual-level fertility? I analyze this question in the context of the East German fertility decline after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Exploiting di erential pressure for restructuring across industries, I nd that throughout the 1990s, women more severely impacted by the demand shock had more children on average than their counterparts who were less severely impacted. I argue that in uncertain economic circumstances, women with relatively more favorable labor market outcomes postpone childbearing in order not to put their labor market situations at further risk. This mechanism is relevant for all quali cation groups, including high-skilled women. There is some evidence for an impact on completed fertility.

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  • Hannah Liepmann, 2016. "The Impact of a Negative Labor Demand Shock on Fertility - Evidence from the Fall of the Berlin Wall," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-042, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-042
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    1. Emmler, Julian & Fitzenberger, Bernd, 2021. "Temporary Overpessimism: Job Loss Expectations Following a Large Negative Employment Shock," IZA Discussion Papers 14149, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Julian Emmler & Bernd Fitzenberger, 2022. "Temporary overpessimism: Job loss expectations following a large negative employment shock," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 621-661, July.
    3. Emmler, Julian & Fitzenberger, Bernd, 2020. "The role of unemployment and job change when estimating the returns to migration," IAB-Discussion Paper 202037, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Emmler, Julian & Fitzenberger, Bernd, 2021. "Temporary overpessimism: Job loss expectations following a large negative employment shock," IAB-Discussion Paper 202105, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    5. Lange, Martin, 2021. "The legacy of state socialism on attitudes toward immigration," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 733-750.
    6. Emmler, Julian & Fitzenberger, Bernd, 2020. "The Role of Unemployment and Job Change When Estimating the Returns to Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 13740, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Andreea Alexandra Piriu, 2022. "Globalization and Gender‐Specific Patterns in Individual Fertility Decisions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(1), pages 129-160, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • P36 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Consumer Economics; Health; Education and Training; Welfare, Income, Wealth, and Poverty

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