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Trade Shocks, Fertility, and Marital Behavior

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  • Osea Giuntella
  • Lorenzo Rotunno
  • Luca Stella

Abstract

Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze the effects of exposure to trade on the fertility and marital behavior of German workers. We find that individuals working in sectors that were more affected by import competition from Eastern Europe and suffered worse labor market outcomes were less likely to have children. In contrast, workers in sectors that benefited from increased exports had better employment prospects and higher fertility. These effects are driven by low-educated and married men, and reflect changes in the likelihood of having any child (extensive margin). While among workers exposed to import competition there is evidence of some fertility postponement, we find a significant reduction of completed fertility. There is instead little evidence of any significant effect on marital behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Osea Giuntella & Lorenzo Rotunno & Luca Stella, 2021. "Trade Shocks, Fertility, and Marital Behavior," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1126, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1126
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    1. Bratsberg, Bernt & Kotsadam, Andreas & Walther, Selma, 2021. "Male Fertility: Facts, Distribution and Drivers of Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 14506, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Andreea Alexandra Piriu, 2022. "Globalization and Gender‐Specific Patterns in Individual Fertility Decisions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(1), pages 129-160, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Trade; Labor Market Outcomes; Fertility; Marriage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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