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Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting

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  • Osea Giuntella
  • Lorenzo Rotunno
  • Luca Stella

Abstract

Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze the effects of exposure to globalization on the fertility and marital behavior in Germany, until recently a lowest-low fertility setting. We find that exposure to greater import competition from Eastern Europe led to worse labor market outcomes and lower fertility rates. In contrast, workers in industries that benefited from increased exports had better employment prospects and higher fertility. These effects are driven by low-educated, married men, and full-time workers and reflect changes in the likelihood of having any child (extensive margin). While there is evidence of some fertility postponement, we find significant effects on completed fertility. There is instead little evidence of any significant impact on marital behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Osea Giuntella & Lorenzo Rotunno & Luca Stella, 2022. "Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting," NBER Working Papers 30119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30119
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    Cited by:

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    2. Peter Levell & Matthias Parey & Aitor Irastorza-Fadrique, 2023. "Household responses to trade shocks," IFS Working Papers W23/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Erten, Bilge & Leight, Jessica & Zhu, Lianming, 2023. "The Effects of FDI Liberalization on Structural Transformation and Demographic Change: Evidence from China," IZA Discussion Papers 16094, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Anna Matysiak & Daniela Bellani & Honorata Bogusz, 2023. "Industrial Robots and Regional Fertility in European Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-36, December.
    5. Mansour, Hani & Medina, Pamela & Velasquez, Andrea, 2023. "When Women's Work Disappears: Marriage and Fertility Decisions in Peru," IZA Discussion Papers 16364, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2023. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," IZA Discussion Papers 16500, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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