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Rational Overconfidence and Social Security

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  • Carsten Krabbe Nielsen

    (Istituto Politica Economica, Universita Cattolica and Korea University)

Abstract

Two of the features that distinguish Social Security and many other state mandated pension plans around the world are that (i) a minimum level of savings for retirement is imposed on most citizens and (ii) individuals cannot decide how their contributions are invested. Here, a rationale for these two features, based on ratoinal overconfidence, is proposed. Rational overconfidence is present when equally informed agents hold diverse confident, rational beliefs. The fact that beliefs are diverse means that all of them cannot be correct, hence seen as a collective agents do not act optimally. In the face of rational overconfidence, Pareto efficiency is no long the natural criterion for comparing policies and we suggest ex-post welfare optimality instead. This criterion makes amends for the possible inconsistencies of agents beliefs. Our results on social security are based on a methodology that places itself strictly between the traditional neoclassical approach and that championed by behavioral economics. This methodology does not deviate from the neoclassical assumption of ratoinality but only broadens it and can therefore readily be applied to many public policy issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2009. "Rational Overconfidence and Social Security," Discussion Paper Series 0916, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    • Handle: RePEc:iek:wpaper:0916
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    File URL: http://econ.korea.ac.kr/~ri/WorkingPapers/w0916.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Subjective Expectations; Rational Beliefs; Ex-post Welfare Optimality; Social Security; Rational Overconfidence; Portfolio Choice;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D02 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact
    • D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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