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Sunspot Rational Beliefs Structures, Equilibria and Excess Volatility

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  • Nielsen Carsten K

    (Universita Cattolica and Korea University)

Abstract

In rational beliefs (RB) models there is an observed empirical distribution for the stochastic process of state variables. Many different weakly asymptotic mean stationary (WAMS) processes could have generated this empirical distribution, i.e. are consistent with it, and each of them are therefore called a rational belief.We provide a general framework for using RB in general equilibrium models. Individual rational beliefs are assumed correlated by means of sunspots which at the aggregate level lead to excess volatility.The application adapts the proof by Duffie et al (1994) of the existence of a stationary ergodic RE equilibrium to the case where agents hold rational beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Nielsen Carsten K, 2007. "Sunspot Rational Beliefs Structures, Equilibria and Excess Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-26, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejtec:v:7:y:2007:i:1:n:16
    DOI: 10.2202/1935-1704.1340
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    Cited by:

    1. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2018. "Rational overconfidence and social security: subjective beliefs, objective welfare," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(2), pages 179-229, March.
    2. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2009. "Rational Overconfidence and Social Security," Discussion Paper Series 0916, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    3. Carsten Nielsen, 2009. "Non-stationary, stable Markov processes on a continuous state space," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 40(3), pages 473-496, September.
    4. Carsten Nielsen, 2011. "Price stabilizing, Pareto improving policies," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 459-500, June.
    5. Carsten K. Nielsen, 2009. "Optimal economic institutions under rational overconfidence, with applications to the choice of exchange rate regime," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(4), pages 375-407, December.

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