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Rational belief structures and rational belief equilibria (*)

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Author Info
Carsten Krabbe Nielsen (Department of Economics, Serra Street at Galvez, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-6072, USA)
Abstract

The paper introduces some simplifying tools and methods for studying Rational Beliefs and for proving existence of Rational Belief Equilibria. We identify a set of stable non-stationary stochastic processes, named SIDS processes. Furthermore we introduce the concept of a Rational Belief Structure, which formulates the Rational Beliefs of the agents as beliefs about the distribution of exogenous variables and the beliefs of other agents. The use of the developed apparatus is demonstrated by showing existence of a set of Rational Belief Equilibria in an Overlapping Generations Model with money and one commodity.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 8 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 399-422
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Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:8:y:1996:i:3:p:399-422

Note: Received: November 2, 1994; October 23, 1995
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
D9 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth

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  1. Kurz, Mordecai & Motolese, Maurizio, 2006. "Risk Premia, diverse belief and beauty contests," MPRA Paper 247, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2004. "Rational overconfidence and excess volatility in General Equilibrium," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 279, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  3. Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2005. "Ambiguity, Information Quality and Asset Pricing," RCER Working Papers 519, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2002. "Learning Under Ambiguity," RCER Working Papers 497, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER), revised Mar 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2004. "Rational overconfidence and excess volatility in general equilibrium," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 157, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mordecai Kurz (contact author) & Hehui Jin & Maurizio Motolese, 2003. "The Role of Expectations in Economic Fluctuations and the Efficacy of Monetary Policy," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/42, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
  7. Peter Hammond & Yeneng Sun, 2001. "Monte Carlo Simulation of Macroeconomic Risk with a Continuum of Agents: The Symmetric Case," Working Papers 01015, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Mordecai Kurz & Hehui Jin & Maurizio Motolese, 2005. "Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 109-147, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mordecai Kurz, 1997. "Social States of Belief and the Determinants of the Equity Risk Premium in A Rational Belief Equilibrium," Working Papers 97026, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "High equity premia and crash fears. Rational foundations," Working Papers 2005-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Hiroyuki Nakata, 2007. "A Model of Financial Markets with Endogenously Correlated Rational Beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 431-452, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Kurz, Mordecai, 2006. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: how different?," MPRA Paper 233, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2006. [Downloadable!]
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