Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The Butz-Ward Fertility Model in the Light of More Recent Data

Contents:

Author Info

  • Diane J. Macunovich
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    In this study, the Butz and Ward (B-W) estimates from their article, "The Emergence of Countercyclical U.S. Fertility" (1979), are updated using their original sources, and then compared against data drawn from the March Current Population Survey (CPS). The results indicate little similarity between the original B-W estimates of the female hourly wage, and the CPS time series. In particular, the CPS time series show that much of the "dramatic increase" in the female hourly wage in the 1960s as estimated by B-W, resulted from the use of a sharply downward trending series in average hours worked in retail-which contradicts the actual pattern for married women. Estimates of the B-W model using the new CPS series don't work, either in terms of signs or in significance of variables. In addition, even using the original B-W data their model no longer fits in the period after about 1954. These results, seen in the context of more recent work, suggest the need for a more general framework for testing the New Home Economics model of fertility-a framework which allows at least for a changing income effect of the female wage-and a need for more caution in assuming that we are witnessing an emergence of countercyclical fertility.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/146118
    Download Restriction: A subscripton is required to access pdf files. Pay per article is available.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by University of Wisconsin Press in its journal Journal of Human Resources.

    Volume (Year): 30 (1995)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 229-255

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:30:y:1995:i:2:p:229-255

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://jhr.uwpress.org/

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Maria Rita Testa & Stuart Basten, 2012. "Have Lifetime Fertility Intentions Declined During the “Great Recession”?," Working Papers, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna 1209, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    2. Phillip B. Levine, 2001. "The Sexual Activity and Birth-Control Use of American Teenagers," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: Risky Behavior among Youths: An Economic Analysis, pages 167-218 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Deniz D. Karaman Örsal & Joshua R. Goldstein, 2010. "The increasing importance of economic conditions on fertility," MPIDR Working Papers, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany WP-2010-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
    5. Namkee Ahn & Pedro Mira, . "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Studies on the Spanish Economy, FEDEA 13, FEDEA.
    6. Yishay Maoz & Moshe Hazan & Matthias Doepke, 2008. "The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis," 2008 Meeting Papers 668, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Bellido, Héctor & Marcén, Miriam, 2011. "Divorce laws and fertility decisions," MPRA Paper 30243, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Angela Luci & Olivier Thévenon, 2010. "Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in oecd countries ?," Working Papers, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED) 167, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED).
    9. Jeon, Yongil & Shields, Michael P., 2008. "The Impact of Relative Cohort Size on U.S. Fertility, 1913-2001," IZA Discussion Papers 3587, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    10. Ray C. Fair & Diane J. Macunovich, 1996. "Explaining the Labor Force Participation of Women 20-24," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 1116, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:30:y:1995:i:2:p:229-255. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.