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Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Closing a Two-country Model

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  • Kano, Takashi

Abstract

In an influential paper, Engel and West (2005) claim that the near random-walk behavior of nominal exchange rates is an equilibrium outcome of a variant of present-value models when economic fundamentals follow exogenous first-order integrated processes and the discount factor approaches one. Subsequent empirical studies further confirm this proposition by estimating a discount factor that is close to one under distinct identification schemes. In this paper, I argue that the unit market discount factor implies the counterfactual joint equilibrium dynamics of random-walk ex-change rates and economic fundamentals within a canonical, two-country, incomplete market model. Bayesian posterior simulation exercises of a two-country model based on post-Bretton Woods data from Canada and the United States reveal difficulties in reconciling the equilibrium random-walk proposition within the two-country model; in particular, the market discount factor is identified as being much lower than one.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University in its series Discussion Papers with number 2013-07.

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Length: 32, [5] p.
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hit:econdp:2013-07

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Keywords: Exchange rates; Present-value model; Economic fundamentals; Random walk; Two- country model; Incomplete markets; Cointegrated TFPs; Debt elastic risk premium;

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  1. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  2. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
  3. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2009. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open economy model," Working Paper Series WP-09-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Michel Normandin & Martin Boileau, 2005. "Closing International Real Business Cycle Models with Restricted Financial Markets," Cahiers de recherche 05-03, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
  5. Peter N. Ireland, 2011. "Stochastic Growth in the United States and Euro Area," NBER Working Papers 16681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Takashi Kano, 2008. "Habit Formation and the Present-Value Model of the Current Account: Yet Another Suspect," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-572, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  7. Gianluca Benigno & Christoph Thoenissen, 2004. " Consumption and Real Exchange Rates with Incomplete Markets and Non-traded Goods," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0405, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, revised Dec 2006.
  8. Federico S. Mandelman & Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Diego Vilán, 2010. "Investment-specific technology shocks and international business cycles: an empirical assessment," Working Paper 2010-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  9. John Geweke, 1998. "Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication," Staff Report 249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Pau Rabanal & Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramirez & Vicente Tuesta Reátegui, 2010. "Cointegrated TFP Processes and International Business Cycles," Working Papers 10-11, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  11. Hafedh Bouakez & Takashi Kano, 2006. "Learning-by-Doing or Habit Formation?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(3), pages 508-524, July.
  12. James M. Nason & John H. Rogers, 2003. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," Working Paper 2003-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  13. Lucio Sarno & Elvira Sojli, 2009. "The Feeble Link between Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Can We Blame the Discount Factor?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 437-442, 03.
  14. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
  15. Balke, Nathan S. & Ma, Jun & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "The contribution of economic fundamentals to movements in exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-16.
  16. Ghironi, Fabio, 2006. "Macroeconomic interdependence under incomplete markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 428-450, December.
  17. Bodenstein, Martin, 2011. "Closing large open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 160-177, July.
  18. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
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