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Cointegration and the stabilizing role of exchange rates

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Author Info

  • Alexius, Annika

    (Department of Economics)

  • Post, Erik

    ()
    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

We show that empirical results concerning the behavior of floating exchange rates differ between otherwise identical cointegrated and non-cointegrated VAR models. In particular, virtually all ten-year movements in nominal exchange rates are due to fundamental supply and demand shocks when long run equilibrium relationships between the levels of the variables are included in the empirical specification. Another major difference between the models with the opposite implication for the shock creation versus shock absorption debate is that non-fundamental exchange rate shocks have much larger effects on output and inflation in the cointegrated models. Finally, impulse response functions in the first difference specification die out within a year whereas adjustment to long run equilibrium continues for up to ten years in the cointegrated models. Hence a correct specification of the long-run equilibrium dynamics of exchange rates is essential for capturing also short-run behavior of exchange rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2006:8.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2006_008

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Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00
Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78
Email:
Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/
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Keywords: Exchange rates; asymmetric shocks; structural VAR; cointegration;

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References

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Alexius, Annika, 2005. "Productivity shocks and real exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 555-566, April.
  3. Louis Kuijs & Alain Borghijs, 2004. "Exchange Rates in Central Europe," IMF Working Papers 04/2, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  6. Groen, Jan J J, 2005. "Exchange Rate Predictability and Monetary Fundamentals in a Small Multi-country Panel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 495-516, June.
  7. Annika Alexius & Mikael Carlsson, 2005. "Measures of Technology and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 299-307, May.
  8. Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "Sectoral Productivity, Government Spending and Real Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 6017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Joseph Joyce & Linda Kamas, 2003. "Real and nominal determinants of real exchange rates in Latin America: Short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 155-182.
  10. Dutton, Marilyn & Strauss, Jack, 1997. "Cointegration tests of purchasing power parity: the impact of non-traded goods," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 433-444, June.
  11. Artis, Michael J & Ehrmann, Michael, 2000. "The Exchange Rate - A Shock-Absorber or Source of Shocks? A Study of Four Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2550, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Hilde Bjørnland, 2004. "The Role of the Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 23-43, January.
  13. Annika Alexius & Erik Post, 2008. "Exchange rates and asymmetric shocks in small open economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 527-541, November.
  14. Duarte, Margarida, 2003. "Why don't macroeconomic quantities respond to exchange rate variability?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 889-913, May.
  15. Strauss, Jack, 1996. "The cointegrating relationship between productivity, real exchange rates and purchasing power parity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 299-313.
  16. Tor Jacobson & Per Jansson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 487-520.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hallberg, Daniel, 2006. "Cross-national differences in income poverty among Europe´s 50+," Working Paper Series 2006:14, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  2. Per Engstrom & Bertil Holmlund, 2009. "Tax evasion and self-employment in a high-tax country: evidence from Sweden," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(19), pages 2419-2430.
  3. Sören Blomquist & Vidar Christiansen & Luca Micheletto, 2008. "Public Provision of Private Goods and Nondistortionary Marginal Tax Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 2303, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Ågren, Martin, 2006. "Prospect Theory and Higher Moments," Working Paper Series 2006:24, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

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