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Following the yellow brick road? The Euro, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

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Author Info
Jesús Rodríguez López () (Universidad Pablo de Olavide de Sevilla)
José Luis Torres Chacón () (Universidad de Málaga)

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Abstract

This paper uses a combination of VAR and bootstrapping techniques to analyze whether the exchange rates of some New Member States of the EU have been used as output stabilizers (those of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland), during 1993-2004. This question is important because it provides prior insights on the costs and benefits from entering the European Monetary Union (EMU). For these countries, joining the EMU is not optional but mandatory, although there is not a definite deadline. Thereby, if the exchange rate works as a shock absorber, monetary independence could be retained for a longer period. Our main finding is that the exchange rate could be a stabilizing tool in Poland and the Czech Republic, although in Hungary it appears as a propagator of shocks. Also, in these three countries, demand and monetary shocks account for most of the variability in both nominal and real exchange rates.

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Paper provided by Centro de Estudios Andaluces in its series Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces with number E2006/02.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2006_02

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Related research
Keywords: EMU exchange rate Structural VAR stationary bootstraps

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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  2. Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(1), pages 177-196, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Lorena Saiz & Universidad de Murcia, 2006. "Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 175, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Salvatore, Dominick, 2004. "Restructuring and Euroization in Accession Countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 889-902, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Maximo Camacho, 2004. "Vector smooth transition regression models for US GDP and the composite index of leading indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 173-196. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-275, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Alain Borghijs & Louis Kuijs, 2004. "Exchange Rates in Central Europe: a Blessing or a Curse?," IMF Working Papers 04/2, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Garett Jones & Ali M Kutan, 2004. "Exchange Rate Management Strategies in the Accession Countries: The Case of Hungary," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 23-44, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Javier Vallés & José Viñals, 1996. "Do Exchange Rate Move to Address International Macroeconomic Imbalances?," Banco de España Working Papers 9626, Banco de España.
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  14. Hilde Bjørnland, 2004. "The Role of the Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 23-43, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," NBER Working Papers 3949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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