Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Following the yellow brick road? The Euro, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

Contents:

Author Info

  • Jesús Rodríguez López

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide)

  • José Luis Torres Chacón

    ()
    (Departamento de Teoría e Historia Económica, Universidad de Málaga)

Abstract

This paper uses a combination of VAR and bootstrapping techniques to analyze whether the exchange rates of some New Member States of the EU have been used as output stabilizers (those of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland), during 1993-2004. This question is important because it provides a prior evaluation on the costs and benefits involved in entering the European Monetary Union (EMU). Joining the EMU is not optional for these countries but mandatory, although there is no definite deadline. Therefore, if the exchange rate works as a shock absorber, monetary independence could be retained for a longer period. Our main finding is that the exchange rate could be a stabilizing tool in Poland and the Czech Republic, although in Hungary it appears to act as a propagator of shocks. In addition, in these three countries, demand and monetary shocks account for most of the variability in both nominal and real exchange rates.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.upo.es/serv/bib/wps/econ0612.pdf
File Function: First version, 2006
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 06.12.

as in new window
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pab:wpaper:06.12

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Carretera de Utrera km.1, 41013 Sevilla
Phone: + 34 954 34 8913
Fax: + 34 954 34 9339
Email:
Web page: http://www.upo.es/econ/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: EMU; exchange rate; Structural VAR; stationary bootstraps.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  2. Agnes Csermely, 2004. "Convergence Expectations and Convergence Strategies. Lessons from the Hungarian Experiences in the pre-EU period1," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 104-126, March.
  3. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706.
  4. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December.
  5. Garett Jones & Ali M Kutan, 2004. "Exchange Rate Management Strategies in the Accession Countries: The Case of Hungary," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 23-44, March.
  6. Hilde Bjørnland, 2004. "The Role of the Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 23-43, January.
  7. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-275, June.
  8. Maximo Camacho, 2004. "Vector smooth transition regression models for US GDP and the composite index of leading indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 173-196.
  9. Bruce E. Hansen, 1998. "Testing for Structural Change in Conditional Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics, Boston College Department of Economics 310., Boston College Department of Economics.
  10. Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(1), pages 177-196, March.
  11. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," Economics Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley 92-187, University of California at Berkeley.
  12. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  13. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Lorena Saiz & Universidad de Murcia, 2006. "Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics 175, Society for Computational Economics.
  14. Salvatore, Dominick, 2004. "Restructuring and Euroization in Accession Countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 889-902, October.
  15. Jan Fidrmuc, 2002. "Migration and regional adjustment to asymmetric shocks in transition economies," CPB Discussion Paper, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis 7, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  16. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Vallés Liberal, Javier & Viñals, José, 1996. "Do Exchange Rates Move to Address International Macroeconomic Imbalances?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2008. "Do European business cycles look like one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2165-2190, July.
  18. Begg, David, 1998. "Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 669-690, December.
  19. Alun H. Thomas, 1997. "Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber? the Case of Sweden," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 97/176, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
  21. Louis Kuijs & Alain Borghijs, 2004. "Exchange Rates in Central Europe," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 04/2, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Jakub Borowski, 2004. "Costs and Benefits of Poland's EMU Accession: a Tentative Assessment," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 127-145, March.
  23. James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers, Queen's University, Department of Economics 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pab:wpaper:06.12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publicación Digital - UPO).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.