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Following the yellow brick road? The Euro, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

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Jesús Rodríguez López
José L. Torres

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Abstract

This paper uses a combination of VAR and bootstrapping techniques to analyze whether the exchange rates of some New Member States of the EU have been used as output stabilizers (those of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland), during 1993-2004. This question is important because it provides a prior evaluation on the costs and benefits involved in entering the European Monetary Union (EMU). Joining the EMU is not optional for these countries but mandatory, although there is no de…nite deadline. Therefore, if the exchange rate works as a shock absorber, monetary independence could be retained for a longer period. Our main …nding is that the exchange rate could be a stabilizing tool in Poland and the Czech Republic, although in Hungary it appears to act as a propagator of shocks. In addition, in these three countries, demand and monetary shocks account for most of the variability in both nominal and real exchange rates.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers on International Economics and Finance with number 06-03.

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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdadef:06-03

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  2. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Lorena Saiz & Universidad de Murcia, 2006. "Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 175, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Begg, David, 1998. "Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 669-690, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Sáiz Matute, Lorena, 2005. "Are European Business Cycles Close Enough to be Just One?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4824, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-275, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Alain Borghijs & Louis Kuijs, 2004. "Exchange Rates in Central Europe: a Blessing or a Curse?," IMF Working Papers 04/2, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Javier Vallés & José Viñals, 1996. "Do Exchange Rate Move to Address International Macroeconomic Imbalances?," Banco de España Working Papers 9626, Banco de España.
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  14. Hilde Bjørnland, 2004. "The Role of the Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 23-43, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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