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The supply side of the housing boom and bust of the 2000s

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Author Info

  • Andrew Haughwout
  • Richard W. Peach
  • John Sporn
  • Joseph Tracy

Abstract

The boom and subsequent bust in housing construction and prices over the 2000s is widely regarded as a principal contributor to the Financial Panic of 2007 and the subsequent Great Recession. As of this writing, housing market activity remains at depressed levels as the economy slowly resolves the legacy of excess supply and sharply lower prices. Over 2.6 million foreclosures have been completed since 2008 and 1.9 million foreclosures are in process. Much has been written about the demand side of this pronounced housing cycle, in particular, the innovations in mortgage finance and the loosening of underwriting standards that greatly expanded the pool of potential homebuyers. In this paper, we take a closer look at developments on the supply side of the housing market. Following a short literature review, we begin with a descriptive review of housing production, sales, and prices at the national, regional, and state levels. We then look at developments in the homebuilding industry over this period. We also take a closer look at land markets using a quarterly price index for metropolitan statistical areas with both elastic and inelastic housing supplies across the United States. An important question is to what extent the supply side of the market contributed to the boom/bust dynamics. A second question is whether the significant changes in the industrial organization of the homebuilding industry exacerbated or ameliorated this supply impact.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 556.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:556

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Keywords: Supply-side economics ; Housing - Prices ; Construction industry;

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References

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  1. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2005. "Urban Decline and Durable Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 345-375, April.
  2. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz, 2008. "Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 14193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2006. "Housing Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. N. Gregory Mankiw & David N. Weil, 1988. "The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 2794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ko Wang & Yuqing Zhou, 2000. "Overbuilding: A Game-Theoretic Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 493-522.
  7. Grenadier, Steven R, 1995. "The Persistence of Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 95-119, March.
  8. Saiz, Albert, 2008. "On Local Housing Supply Elasticity," ERES eres2008_241, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  9. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August.
  10. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August.
  11. Brent W. Ambrose & Joe Peek, 2008. "Credit Availability and the Structure of the Homebuilding Industry," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 659-692, December.
  12. Stuart S. Rosenthal, 1999. "Residential Buildings And The Cost Of Construction: New Evidence On The Efficiency Of The Housing Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 288-302, May.
  13. Welch, Ivo, 1992. " Sequential Sales, Learning, and Cascades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 695-732, June.
  14. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-79, December.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. The Housing Market Can Boom, Once You Move Out Of Your Mom’s Basement
    by Mark Bergen in Mark Bergen (Econometro) on 2011-12-20 16:06:17
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Cited by:
  1. Andrew Haughwout & Sarah Sutherland & Joseph Tracy, 2013. "Negative equity and housing investment," Staff Reports 636, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Narayan Bulusu & Jefferson Duarte & Carles Vergara-Alert, 2013. "Booms and Busts in House Prices Explained by Constraints in Housing Supply," Working Papers 13-18, Bank of Canada.
  3. Todd M. Sinai, 2012. "House Price Moments in Boom-Bust Cycles," NBER Working Papers 18059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Crocker H. Liu & Adam Nowak & Stuart Rosenthal, 2014. "Bubbles, Post-Crash Dynamics, and the Housing Market," Working Papers 14-18, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.

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