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House Price Moments in Boom-Bust Cycles

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  • Todd M. Sinai

Abstract

This paper describes six stylized patterns among housing markets in the United States that potential explanations of the housing boom and bust should seek to explain. First, individual housing markets in the U.S. experienced considerable heterogeneity in the amplitudes of their cycles. Second, the areas with the biggest boom-bust cycles in the 2000s also had the largest boom-busts in the 1980s and 1990s, with a few telling exceptions. Third, the timing of the cycles differed across housing markets. Fourth, the largest booms and busts, and their timing, seem to be clustered geographically. Fifth, the cross sectional variance of annual house price changes rises in booms and declines in busts. Finally, these stylized facts are robust to controlling for housing demand fundamentals – namely, rents, incomes, or employment – although changes in fundamentals are correlated with changes in prices.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18059.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Publication status: published as Todd Sinai. "House Price Moments in Boom-Bust Cycles," in Edward L. Glaeser and Todd Sinai, editors, "Housing and the Financial Crisis" University of Chicago Press (2013)
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18059

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  1. Ortalo-Magné, François & Prat, Andrea, 2010. "Spatial Asset Pricing: A First Step," CEPR Discussion Papers 7842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2009. "Forced Sales and House Prices," NBER Working Papers 14866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Glaeser, Edward & Saiz, Albert & Gyourko, Joseph, 2008. "Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles," Scholarly Articles 2962640, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
  5. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Joseph Gyourko, 2012. "Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 301-359 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Gadi Barlevy & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2010. "Mortgage choices and housing speculation," Working Paper Series WP-2010-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  7. Joseph Gyourko & Eduardo Morales & Charles Nathanson & Edward Glaeser, 2011. "Housing Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Markus K Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2006. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," FMG Discussion Papers dp579, Financial Markets Group.
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Cited by:
  1. Narayan Bulusu & Jefferson Duarte & Carles Vergara-Alert, 2013. "Booms and Busts in House Prices Explained by Constraints in Housing Supply," Working Papers 13-18, Bank of Canada.
  2. Dettling, Lisa J. & Kearney, Melissa S., 2014. "House prices and birth rates: The impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 82-100.
  3. Pan, Huiran & Wang, Chun, 2013. "House prices, bank instability, and economic growth: Evidence from the threshold model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1720-1732.

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