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Financial liberalization and banking crises in emerging economies

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  • Betty C. Daniel
  • John Bailey Jones

Abstract

In this paper, we provide a theoretical explanation of why financial liberalization is likely to generate financial crises in emerging market economies. We first show that under financial repression the aggregate capital stock and bank net worth are both likely to be low. This leads a newly liberalized bank to be highly levered, because the marginal product of capital—and thus loan interest rates—are high. The high returns on capital, however, also make default unlikely, and they encourage the bank to retain all of its earnings. As the bank’s net worth grows, aggregate capital rises, the marginal product of capital falls, and a banking crisis becomes more likely. Although the bank faces conflicting incentives toward risk-taking, as net worth continues to grow the bank will become increasingly cautious. Numerical results suggest that the bank will reduce its risk, by reducing its leverage, before issuing dividends. We also find that government bailouts, which allow defaulting banks to continue running, induce significantly more risk-taking than the liability limits associated with standard bankruptcy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Pacific Basin Working Paper Series with number 2001-03.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:2001-03

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Keywords: Developing countries ; Financial crises;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Caballe, Jordi & Jarque, Xavier & Michetti, Elisabetta, 2006. "Chaotic dynamics in credit constrained emerging economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1261-1275, August.
  2. Bastidon, Cécile & Gilles, Philippe & Huchet, Nicolas, 2008. "The international lender of last resort and selective bail-out," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 144-152, June.
  3. Magdalena Radulescu & Marinela Tanascovici, 2012. "Profitability of the CEE Banking Systems During the Crisis Period," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 12(1), pages 274-291.
  4. Julian Caballero, 2012. "Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises? Cross-Country Evidence on Bonanzas in Capital Inflows and Bonanza-Boom- Bust Cycles," Research Department Publications 4775, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  5. Sufian, Fadzlan, 2009. "Determinants of bank efficiency during unstable macroeconomic environment: Empirical evidence from Malaysia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 54-77, January.
  6. Aidi, Wafa, 2013. "Optima exchange crisis regression and twin crisis: Evidences for some MENA countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 306-311.
  7. Enowbi Batuo, Michael & Mlambo, Kupukile, 2012. "Financial liberalisation, Banking Crises and Economic Growth in African Countries," MPRA Paper 41524, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Julián Caballero, 2012. "Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises?: Cross-Country Evidence on Bonanzas in Capital Inflows and Bonanza-Boom-Bust Cycles," IDB Publications 71178, Inter-American Development Bank.
  9. Batuo Enowbi, Michael & Kupukile, Mlambo, 2012. "Financial instability, financial openness and economic growth in african countries," MPRA Paper 43340, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Puspa Amri & Apanard P. Angkinand & Clas Wihlborg, 2011. "International comparisons of bank regulation, liberalization, and banking crises," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 322-339, November.
  11. Alin Marius ANDRIES & Vasile COCRIS & Silviu Gabriel URSU, 2012. "Determinants Of Bank Performance In Cee Countries," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 10, pages 165-177, December.
  12. Houssem Rachdi, 2010. "The Link between International Supervision and Banking Crises," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(3), pages 321-332, September.

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