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Basel and procyclicality: a comparison of the standardised and IRB approaches to an improved credit risk method

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  • Charles Goodhart
  • Miguel A. Segoviano
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    Abstract

    The regulation of bank capital in the form of capital adequacy requirements is itself inherently procyclical; it bites in downturns, but fails to restrain in booms. The more risk-sensitive the regulation, the greater the scope for pro-cyclicality to become a problem, particularly in view of the changing nature of macroeconomic cycles. The simulation exercises performed in this paper suggest that the new Basel II accord, which deliberately aimed at significantly increasing the risk sensitiveness of capital requirements, may in fact considerably accentuate the procyclicality of the regulatory system. Since the experience in the past, also discussed in this paper, suggests that a required hoisting of capital ratios in downturns may be brought about by cutting back lending rather than raising capital, the new capital accord may therefore lead to an amplification of business cycle fluctuations, especially in downturns.

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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/24821/
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library in its series LSE Research Online Documents on Economics with number 24821.

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    Length: 25 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:24821

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    1. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
    2. Brennan, Michael J, 2004. "How Did It Happen?," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt1047x6kv, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
    4. Michael Leahy & Sebastian Schich & Gert Wehinger & Florian Pelgrin & Thorsteinn Thorgeirsson, 2001. "Contributions of Financial Systems to Growth in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 280, OECD Publishing.
    5. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
    6. Allen N. Berger & Gregory F. Udell, 1994. "Did risk-based capital allocate bank credit and cause a "credit crunch" in the United States?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 585-633.
    7. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
    8. C. H. Furfine, 1999. "Interbank exposures: quantifying the risk of contagion," BIS Working Papers 70, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Kaminsky, Graciela Laura & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2002. "Short-run pain, long-run gain : the effects of financial liberalization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2912, The World Bank.
    10. Craig Furfine, 1999. "Interbank exposures: quantifying the risk of contagion," Proceedings 633, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    11. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    12. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    13. Michael J. Brennan, 2004. "How Did It Happen?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 33(1), pages 3-22, 02.
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    Cited by:
    1. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto, 2006. "Portfolio Credit Risk and Macroeconomic Shocks," IMF Working Papers 06/283, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Loranth, Gyongyi & Morrison, Alan, 2009. "Internal Reporting Systems, Compensation Contracts, and Bank Regulation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7155, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Charles Goodhart & Miguel Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," FMG Discussion Papers dp627, Financial Markets Group.
    4. Lóránth, Gyöngyi & Morrison, Alan, 2009. "Internal Reporting Systems, Compensation Contracts and Bank Regulation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. C. A. E. Goodhart & Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," IMF Working Papers 09/4, International Monetary Fund.

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