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The Inflation Forecast and the Loss Function

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  • Svensson, Lars E O

Abstract

This Paper argues that inflation-targeting central banks should announce explicit loss function with numerical relative weights on output-gap stabilization and use and announce optimal time-varying instrument-rate paths and corresponding inflation and output-gap forecasts. Simple voting procedures for forming the Monetary Policy Committee’s aggregate loss function and time-varying instrument-rate paths are suggested. Announcing an explicit loss function improves the transparency of inflation targeting and eliminates some misunderstandings of the meaning of ‘flexible’ inflation targeting. Using time-varying instrument-rate paths avoids a number of inconsistencies and other problems inherently associated with constant-interest-rate forecasts.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3365.

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Date of creation: May 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3365

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Keywords: inflation targeting; interest rate paths;

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References

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  1. Leitemo, Kai, 2003. " Targeting Inflation by Constant-Interest-Rate Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 609-26, August.
  2. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen.
  4. A. Robert Nobay & David A. Peel, 1998. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model of Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," FMG Discussion Papers dp306, Financial Markets Group.
  5. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Working Papers 118, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  6. Mervyn King, 1994. "Monetary policy in the UK," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 109-28, August.
  7. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco .J., 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," Cahiers de recherche 2001-04, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  8. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, . "Political Economics and Macroeconomic Policy," Working Papers 121, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  9. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 8071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2001. "Monetary transmission lags and the formulation of the policy decision on interest rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 165-186.
  11. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 2196, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. repec:sae:niesru:v:167:y::i:1:p:106-112 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Lars E. O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Implementing Optimal Policy through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," NBER Working Papers 9747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Nessén, Marianne & Vestin, David, 2000. "Average Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series 119, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  15. Gilles Oudiz & Jeffrey Sachs, 1985. "International Policy Coordination In Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," NBER Chapters, in: International Economic Policy Coordination, pages 274-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Commentary : how should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 277-316.
  17. Professor Lars E O Svensson, 2001. "Independent review of the operation of monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Real Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 9486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005. "Targeting versus instrument rules for monetary policy: what is wrong with McCallum and Nelson?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 613-626.
  3. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Monetary policy and learning," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 11-16.
  4. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2004. "Targeting Rules vs. Instrument Rules for Monetary Policy: What is Wrong with McCallum and Nelson?," NBER Working Papers 10747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(5), pages 478-497, 09.
  6. Koppány, Krisztián, 2007. "Likviditási csapda és deflációs spirál egy inflációs célt követő modellben - a hitelesség szerepe
    [A liquidity trap and deflationary spiral in a model for pursuing an inflation target -
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 974-1003.
  7. Juillard, Michel & Karam, Philippe & Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 0613, European Central Bank.
  8. Juan Paez-Farrell, 2009. "Timeless perspective vs discretionary policymaking when the degree of inflation persistence is unknown," Discussion Paper Series 2009_14, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Sep 2009.
  9. Paolo Surico, 2003. "How does the ECB target inflation?," Macroeconomics 0305005, EconWPA.
  10. Jérôme Héricourt, 2004. "And if one size fit all after all ? A counterfactual examination of the ECB monetary policy under Duisenberg presidency," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla04004a, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), revised Nov 2005.
  11. Lavan Mahadeva & Alex Muscatelli, 2005. "National Accounts Revisions and Output Gap Estimates in a Model of Monetary Policy with Data Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 14, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.

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