A simple test of momentum in foreign exchange markets
AbstractThis study proposes a new method for testing for the presence of momentum in nominal exchange rates, using a probabilistic approach. We illustrate our methodology estimating a binary response model using information on local currency / US dollar exchange rates of eight emerging economies. After controlling for important variables a§ecting the behavior of exchange rates in the short-run, we show evidence of exchange rate inertia; in other words, we Önd that exchange rate momentum is a common feature in this group of emerging economies, and thus foreign exchange traders participating in these markets are able to make excess returns by following technical analysis strategies. We Önd that the presence of momentum is asymmetric, being stronger in moments of currency depreciation than of appreciation. This behavior may be associated with central bank intervention.
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Date of creation: 13 Mar 2011
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- José Eduardo Gómez-González & Andrés F. García-Suaza, 2012. "A Simple Test of Momentum in Foreign Exchange Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 48(5), pages 66-77, September.
- Andres Felipe Garcia-Suaza & Jose Eduardo Gómez, 2011. "A Simple Test of Momentum in Foreign Exchange Markets," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 008230, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Andrés Felipe García-Suaza & Jose Eduardo Gómez González, . "A Simple Test of Momentum in Foreign Exchange Markets," Borradores de Economia 647, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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