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The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis

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  • Pietro Catte

    ()
    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Pietro Cova

    ()
    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Patrizio Pagano

    ()
    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Ignazio Visco

    ()
    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

This paper argues that the lack of timely and decisive policy action to correct domestic and external imbalances contributed crucially to the build-up of financial excesses that led to the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We focus on 2002-07 and perform a number of counterfactual simulations to investigate two central elements of the story, namely: (a) an over-expansionary US monetary policy and the absence of effective macro-prudential supervision, which permitted a prolonged expansion of debt-financed consumer spending; (b) the decision of China and other emerging countries to pursue an export-led growth strategy supported by pegging their currencies to the US dollar, resulting in a huge build-up of their official reserves, in conjunction with sluggish domestic demand in surplus advanced economies characterized by low potential output growth. The results of the simulations lend support to the view that if substantial, globally coordinated demand rebalancing had been undertaken in a timely manner, the macroeconomic and financial imbalances would not have accumulated to the extent that they did and the financial turmoil might have had less drastic global consequences.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) with number 69.

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Date of creation: Jul 2010
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_69_10

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Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it
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Keywords: global imbalances; financial crisis; monetary policy; macroprudential regulation; structural reforms.;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Seip, Knut L. & McNown, Robert, 2013. "Monetary policy and stability during six periods in US economic history: 1959–2008: a novel, nonlinear monetary policy rule," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 307-325.
  2. Paolo Angelini & Stefano Neri & Fabio Panetta, 2011. "Monetary and macroprudential policies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 801, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Seewon, 2013. "Transmission of the global financial crisis to Korea," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 339-353.
  4. Pietro Catte & Pietro Cova & Patrizio Pagano & Ignazio Visco, 2011. "Macroeconomic Policies and the Roots of the Global Crisis," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  5. Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul & Bashar, Omar H.M.N. & Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali, 2012. "Monetary policy and the housing market in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 849-863.
  6. Paolo Angelini & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Ignazio Visco, 2012. "Macroprudential, microprudential and monetary policies: conflicts, complementarities and trade-offs," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 140, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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